Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill: UFC 300 Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
UFC Light-Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira is set to defend his belt for the first time against former champion Jamahal Hill in the milestone UFC 300 event.
Hill will be looking to regain his belt after vacating the title following an ankle injury back in July. Pereira secured his name as just the tenth fighter in UFC history to have titles in two weight divisions in November.
This card is stacked from top-to-bottom, with the co-main event being a Chinese title fight in the Women’s straw-weight division between current champion Weili Zhang and Yan Xiaonan. The card will also feature the BMF Title fight in the lightweight division between Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway. A plethora of former champions will compete on the card, including Charles Oliveira, Jiri Prochazka and Aljamain Sterling.
Recent Form
Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira’s rise to the pinnacle of MMA has been sensational. The former Glory Kickboxing two-weight world champion has only competed eleven times in MMA, but has already won the UFC Middlewight belt, and is the current light-heavy champion, thanks to his KO victory over Jiri Prochazka back in November.
Pereira won that fight as he knocked down Jiri with his trademark left hook before finishing him on the ground. The Brazilian has shown tremendous improvement in his ground game, as he defended well against Jann Blachowicz in their fight back in July, to earn a split-decision victory.
Pereira is a world class striker who utilises a wide array of weapons to win his fights. In particular, his calf kicks have been extremely effective in damaging his opponents, as seen in the two Israel Adesanya fights. Pereira won the first of those via TKO as he piled the pressure on late in round five, before Adesanya secured a knockout victory in the rematch.
Pereira is undoubtedly a renowned knockout artist. 78% of his wins in MMA have come via KO and he will undoubtedly try to keep this fight on the feet. He also has a high significant strike accuracy of 62%. Pereira also has a decent take down defence of 70%.
CHAMA 👀@AlexPereiraUFC and @JamahalH come face-to-face for the first time on Fight Week😮💨#UFC300 | Saturday | LIVE on TNT Sports & discovery+ pic.twitter.com/YE2dxbXAhb
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) April 9, 2024
Jamahal Hill
Despite being a champion in the past, Jamahal Hill never defended the belt after winning his title fight against Alex Pereira’s coach, Glover Texeira in January 2023. Hill vacated the 205lb belt in July after tearing his achilles. Hill has not fought since then.
Hill comes into this fight on an impressive four-win streak, with three coming by KO. The previously mentioned fight against Teixeira saw Hill dominate his opponent to win a unanimous-decision. Hill out-struck Teixeira, landing 248 strikes to 108. He also had an impressive 57% significant strike accuracy and defended 15 of Texeira’s 17 takedowns.
Hill has landed 7.31 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, compared to Pereira’s five. The American is a southpaw, and his kicking ability may be a useful weapon, as Adesanya showed when he moved to the position against Pereira. Hill’s two fights before that saw him KO Thiago Santos in round four and Johnny Walker in round one; the KO against Walker showing his one-punch power.
Despite opinions stating that Hill may have the grappling advantage, Hill has never taken down an opponent before in the UFC and so will more than likely keep this one standing. Hill has won 57% of his fights by KO.
Prediction
This one is intriguing as both fighters have the ability KO the other. However, OddsNow believe Pereira will have the tools to get this one done. Hill is returning from an injury and hasn’t fought in over a year. Pereira comes into this one in good form, with KO wins over Adesanya, Jiri and Sean Strickland (all former champions) all coming within the last two years.
OddsNow also believe that this fight will go over 1.5 rounds. Despite recent knockouts, Hill has not always finished his opponents with a 57% KO rate, and Pereira has shown that he will be patient and not force a KO in previous fights.