The Betting Bunker: Lowry can find his mojo at Yas Links
Alamy
In the latest addition to our tipping arsenal, Odds Now's golf expert Ross Kilvington (@Kilvington91) casts his eye over the DP World Tour's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which tees off this Thursday in the UAE.
The DP World Tour’s regular season began in Australia last November and ended at the Genesis Championship in South Korea a couple of weeks ago.
After 44 tournaments, thoughts now turn to the first of the playoff events — the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. The event has been moved from its usual January spot in the calendar to one slightly more prominent, towards the end of the calendar year.
Following the Genesis, the top 70 players in the Race to Dubai standings qualified for this penultimate event of 2024, where riches await in the Middle East.
The top 50 will then qualify for the season-ending DP World Tour Championship, where the Harry Vardon trophy will be awarded to the person who accumulates the most points, thus claiming the Race to Dubai title.
Previous winners include Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Lee Westwood and Tommy Fleetwood. Will a new name soon be joining that list?
This week's Kyle Phillips design isn’t a true links test, but it isn’t far off, which is remarkable considering the person behind courses such as Kingsbarns and Dundonald Links has been tasked with recreating the beauty of such tracks in the United Arab Emirates, of all places.
Given the wide fairways, an abundance of bunkers and water coming into play on several holes, it certainly offers a stern challenge — although I am willing to bet the weather is a tad nicer than Scotland in November…
In betting terms, this course will likely favour those who have shone in a links environment previously. The smaller field makes it trickier to name a winner, although there are a few players who look likely to enjoy Yas Links more so than others.
Lowry loves a links test
Shane Lowry (16/1) has won this tournament before, claiming victory back in January 2019, although it was held at Abu Dhabi Golf Club on that occasion rather than Yas Links.
That title proved to be the catalyst for the Irishman to win the Open just six months later, prevailing over Tommy Fleetwood by six shots at Portrush. Lowry struck it beautifully that week, especially when conditions were horrendous on the final day, claiming his first major win.
The 37-year-old hasn’t added to his major tally since then, but his form in 2024 has been encouraging to say the least. He won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Rory McIlroy, while also making the cut in all four majors.
Top tens in the US PGA and the Open were as good as it got, despite coming close to adding his second Claret Jug to his victory haul. Indeed, at Troon, he led at the halfway stage, before a third round 77 took him out of contention.
In more recent times, the burly Irishman has shown remarkable consistency. Lowry has finished T12, T12, T13 and T12 in his last four events and I believe he has an excellent chance to take home the title this week, should a return to his favourite kind of track bring out some marginal improvement.
It will be his first outing since the Dunhill Links in October and with three rounds in the 60s shot across three different links courses, his game is shaping up well.
Manassero's feel-good story may have another chapter
Of course, sentiment is not why I’m backing Matteo Manassero (50/1) to perform well in the Middle East this week, but it is refreshing to finally see him back among the game's elite after years of hell.
Four tour wins before turning 21 meant the Italian had the world at his feet. It took him 11 years to add his fifth, finally securing a return to the DPWT via his success on the Challenge Tour.
Manassero has enjoyed a solid season back on the main circuit, recording seven top ten finishes. He has also performed well in the big events, securing an outright third at the Irish Open, fourth at the BMW PGA Championships and a T6 in the British Masters.
Yas Links features plenty of bunkers and large greens, which should play right into the 31-year-old's hands. On the DPWT this season, he ranks tenth for Greens in Regulation, averaging 70.6% when the tour average currently sits at 65.79%.
Furthermore, Manassero ranks 17th for Sand Save percentage – 65.35% — which is higher than the average of 57.39% among his peers. If he does get into trouble around the greens, his ability to get up and down could save him.
For these reasons, he ertainly has a wonderful chance of finishing high up the leaderboard this week and he looks worth including in a betting card at 50/1.
Brown looks best of the bigger prices
Further down the market, Daniel Brown makes appeal for those who like a huge price.
A whopping 11 missed cuts on the DPWT since the start of the year hardly screams consistency, yet two results stand out in the past few weeks. In his previous start, Brown secured his spot in the first playoff event with a third-place finish at the Andalucia Masters, just a few weeks after finishing fourth at the Irish Open.
An impressive final round of 66 vaulted him up the leaderboard and if it weren’t for a disappointing Saturday — shooting a tired-looking 73 in benign conditions — he may well have challenged for the title.
Brown’s T10 finish at the 152nd Open Championship in the summer may well have been the catalyst for those end of season performances. Playing in his first major, the 30-year-old showed no signs of nerves, topping the leaderboard on Thursday with an error free 65.
The next three rounds saw him shoot over par, but it was an encouraging major debut and these two performances more than merit taking a gamble on the Englishman, whose best days are still to come.
Ross' Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship betting picks
Shane Lowry - 1pt each way @ 16/1 (7 places)
Matteo Manassero - 1pt each way @ 50/1 (6 places)
Daniel Brown - 0.5pts each way @ 125/1 (7 places)