Gab Sutton weekly: Crazy start calls for a re-think in Championship dogfight
In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) gives his thoughts on this season's battle for survival in the Championship...
I must admit, the Championship relegation battle hasn’t panned out quite how I expected thus far.
When I published my 1-24 predictions before the start of the season, my bottom six was Millwall, Watford, Derby, Oxford, Plymouth Argyle and Blackburn, in descending order.
We’re only 12 games in but all six have enjoyed impeccable home form, while only Argyle find themselves in the bottom six right now.
That either shows you how crazily unpredictable it’s been — or that I used up all my psychic powers on Sunderland. Maybe both!
So, calling it now is a balancing act between respecting how impressive Watford, Derby, Oxford and Blackburn have been, contrary to expectation, whilst appreciating there’s still the small matter of three-quarters of a season to play — plenty of time for things to change.
Nonetheless, I think it’s fair to be concerned for Portsmouth, QPR and Argyle, with the former two currently residing in the bottom three and the latter sitting just outside it in 21st.
There’s no chance Luton stay in relegation trouble all season, and for the aforementioned trio, you’d probably have to go up to 14th place with Oxford for a side that look likelier to drop down the table than climb up it.
As for the intervening six, Stoke and Hull are in uncertain places structurally but may have too much quality to get sucked in, while Coventry certainly won’t under Mark Robins.
Preston North End, meanwhile, have got themselves a proven Championship manager in Paul Heckingbottom and have the results to show for it with one defeat in seven.
Swansea are a good footballing side who haven’t been able to convert their chances, yet, although they’ve also been fortunate defensively — while across South Wales, Cardiff look transformed under the interim stewardship of Omar Riza.
One or two of those six may stay in the relegation conversation, by the law of averages, but may not be easy for current strugglers to catch.
Pompey have just one win to their name thus far and may have been guilty of complacency to some extent. They placed so much faith in the squad that won them the League One title last season, understandably, but in turn maybe didn't give themselves what they needed in the summer.
Sporting Director Richard Hughes did make 14 senior signings, in fairness, but none of those additions leap off the page as recruits that significantly improve them.
QPR will be delighted with their point and clean sheet at Burnley last weekend, which illustrated the importance of having key defender Jake Clarke-Salter back alongside Steve Cook, who was imperious at Turf Moor.
If the Rs can resolidify, and utilize the European out-of-contract market as well as they did last season, they have a chance of climbing away from trouble under a head coach in Marti Cifuentes who has steered them clear before.
Argyle have been clinical at home, but I’m concerned that the no-shows we’ve seen from them. Performances like at Sheffield Wednesday on the opening day and at Cardiff more recently make me worry about whether they have what it takes.
Let’s say I’m right, that Luton, Cardiff, Stoke, Coventry, Swansea, PNE and Hull all avoid the drop, then Portsmouth, QPR and Argyle have to make gaps of six, five and two points respectively on Oxford in 14th — and more for anyone above.
The Yellows may regress into the relegation equation but are showing few signs of plummeting entirely, despite hitman Mark Harris’ loss of form. They’ve only lost four matches all season, and nine of their next 13 fixtures come against bottom-half opposition.
Des Buckingham’s side will still be the target for teams down the bottom and so, to an extent, will Derby, who find themselves in the top half following a four-game unbeaten run.
The Rams need to use a favourable November to build up a comfortable buffer to the bottom three that may get eaten into during a nightmarish December which involves facing Leeds twice.
Paul Warne has learnt lessons from the opening day 4-2 loss at Blackburn, since which they’ve been more positive on the road, whilst still being solid, resolute and efficient from set pieces.
However, they’ll rely heavily on the form and fitness of Kenzo Goudmijn in midfield, as well as Nathaniel Mendez-Laing in attack.
So, we’ve covered half the league there — and we still end up with more questions than answers!
It’s hard to argue with Portsmouth and Plymouth Argyle being odds-on for the drop. After that, it’s likely to be one of Oxford or QPR. We’ll lean towards the Rs.
When has the Championship ever been as straight forward as that though?!
Gab's tips for Championship relegation
Portsmouth to be relegated from the Championship — 7/10 (Betfair)
Plymouth to be relegated from the Champonship — 10/11 (Betfair)
QPR to be relegated from the Championship — 5/2 (Bet365)
*Prices correct as of midday on November 1st, 2024.