SD's Racing Ramble: Tipping travesties and a Saturday 7/2 shot to snap up

Having amassed a loyal following on our Races Now YouTube channel thanks to a combination of outstanding tipping and forthright opinions, the unimitable 'SD' has now signed up for a weekly column right here on OddsNow.com! 

Today's latest edition sees our man make a plea to the Racing Post's legion of tipsters and share some wisdom from the track — including two notebook horses and a 7/2 fancy at Doncaster this weekend.

Explain this to me. How can you back a horse without knowing what price it is? Moreover, how can you set your stake? It’s an area of complete bewilderment to me.

The Racing Post does this, advising bets at SP. It is inherently wrong.

When assessing a race, as I do, you know roughly the odds you are prepared to back a horse at. Odds merely mean the horses chance in percentage based terms. So if a horse is evens, you need to be over 50% sure it will win. At 4/1 its 20% and 9/1, 10% . That is the entire premise of betting in a nutshell.

Take Saturday night. I was driving back from Ayr and my better half relayed the odds for the next day at Carlisle out to me. Dunnet Head was 18/1. After oscillating all over the road somewhere north of Moffat in total disbelief, instructions were placed to bet him. Then Tom Segal put him up and the price crashed.

Here's the thing, though — I thought he was a 5/1 shot. I have no idea what price Tom thought he should be but his 4/1 SP was not, in my eyes, value. Having put him up on this channel at 13/2, he finished second.

The brief set to the tipsters in the Racing Post is a thankless one. It is nigh-on impossible to tip at SP nearly 24 hours out. The “Pricewise” concept in itself is a misnomer, since it is impossible to know what price is being advised.

The system is not fit for purpose but there is a remedy, which is to just provide the price which is considered value.  It gives people an idea, at least, without a blindfolded exercise of betting regardless of price.

I’m sure the entire process frustrates the authors as much as the recipients.

In other news, I was saddened to read Alastair Down died last week. He provided devotees of this great sport endless pleasure whatever the medium. He cared, he wore his heart on his sleeve and his gift of writing was stuff of legend. He lived his life well and racing will be forever indebted to him.

Dry weather continues to blight field sizes over jumps and there wasn’t much to learn last weekend at the main meetings, though there were a couple of eye-catchers which may have fell under the radar.

The Kalooki Kid in the last at Ayr could not reel in the front-running winner, but was not overly exerted to do so. Compensation awaits and his jumping looked good.

Meanwhile, the venerable Flower of Scotland could finish only fifth in the 3:23pm at Carlisle but shaped nicely and plodded up the run-in in such a manner to show all was not lost.

She needs it hock-deep and it is significant she remains in training. The handicapper may react by dropping her and a further win in The Borders National is by no means out of the question.

With the weather causing havoc as previously mentioned, it’s difficult to find something for this week — however, the 7/2 about Danielle in the Gillies Stakes at Doncaster on Saturday looks worth taking.

She is head and shoulders above the rest in terms of form and down in class from an excellent second in the St Simon, she will take the world of beating. Do avail yourself of this.

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