West Ham vs Fulham: Betting Odds & Prediction

European hopefuls West Ham host Fulham at the London Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Hammers hope to avenge their humiliating 5-0 defeat to Fulham in the reverse fixture earlier this season. 

The seventh-placed Hammers know a win is vital in their battle for European football next year, with only eight points separating sixth and twelfth in the Premier League table. Kick-off is set for 12pm UK time. 

Recent Form 

West Ham

West Ham come into this game on a decent run of form. They have only lost once during their last seven Premier League games, most recently gaining a 2-1 comeback win against Wolves at Molineux. Although they have drawn their last three home matches, two of these draws were against top-five opposition in Tottenham and Aston Villa. 

Although the hosts will be a lot less rested than their opponents on Sunday due to West Ham travelling to Germany to face Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League quarter-final on Thursday night, The Hammers have balanced their European and domestic games impressively this season. West Ham have only lost one Premier League match following a midweek Europa League match this season. 

The Hammers are the eleventh-best home team in the league, gaining 1.56 points per home game. Although they have only lost three home league games, they have drawn seven times - the most in the Premier League. 

West Ham have been fortunate this season, scoring 1.63 home goals a game from an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.19. Moreover, they have overperformed defensively, conceding 1.44 home goals a game from an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.58.

David Moyes’s side head into this game without first-choice goalkeeper Alphonse Areola, while top scorer Jarrod Bowen - who has scored 15 and assisted five of West Ham’s 52 Premier League goals this season (38.46%), is a doubt. However, Brazilian playmaker Lucas Paqueta is fit for Sunday. The Hammers have not won any of the seven league games he’s missed this season.

Fulham

The away side come into this match in terrible form. They have gained one of the last nine available points in the league, conceding seven goals in their last three league games. Most recently, they were defeated 1-0 at home to Newcastle.

The Cottagers have been abysmal away from home this season. They have gained only 0.69 points per game on the road - the fifth-worst away record in the division, only one more point than 19th-placed Burnley.

Marco Silva’s men have underperformed offensively on the road this season, scoring only 1.13 away goals per game from an xG of 1.37.  Their defence has also been the principal reason behind Fulham’s horrific away form. The Cottagers have conceded a staggering 2.19 away goals a game – the joint second most in the league - from an xGA of 1.72, a significant underperformance.

On a positive note, Marco Silva has a fully fit squad to pick from, including top scorer Rodrigo Muniz. Muniz has scored eight goals in the last ten league matches but hasn’t scored in his last two games. However, whilst he has 0.9 goals per 90 minutes at home this season, this lowers to 0.3 goals per 90 minutes on his travels.

Prediction

Although West Ham have effectively juggled domestic and European affairs this season, their match on Thursday against unbeaten Bayer Leverkusen is potentially their biggest match of the season and will be an exhausting and challenging test, especially away from home.

Despite Fulham’s disastrous away form, they may face a tired and jagged West Ham side come Sunday, whilst the Hammers have found it hard to shut teams out at home recently, having not kept a clean sheet in six home matches.

OddsNow's Pick: Fulham to win (19/10 @ bet365)