Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Arsenal host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon in a pivotal match with implications for both the title race and the battle for the fourth Champions League qualification spot.
The hosts aim to maintain their position atop the Premier League table, currently secured by a superior goal difference to Liverpool and a single point advantage over reigning champions Manchester City. The visitors sit just shy of the Champions League qualification spots, edged out only by a narrower goal difference compared to Tottenham Hotspur. However, they've played one more match than Spurs.
Kick-off is set for 4.30pm at Emirates Stadium.
Recent Form
Arsenal
The hosts have been in fine form recently, winning 3-0 in their last league match away against Brighton & Hove Albion. Their comfortable victory at the Amex made them the first team to travel to Brighton and take maximum points in the league since August. Their most recent match was a 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Tuesday night.
Mikel Arteta’s side have been prolific all season, scoring more than any other Premier League club with seventy-five goals. Their expected goal (xG) tally sits at 2 for home matches, which have bettered by netting an impressive average of 2.53 goals per game at home. The Gunners have scored in 93% of their league matches at the Emirates this season.
Arsenal also have the best defensive record in the league, conceding only twenty-four goals and keeping fourteen clean sheets in thirty-one games. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally sits at 0.86 in home matches and they have conceded an almost identical average of 0.87 goals per home game. They have however failed to keep clean sheets as frequently at home as they do on the road, conceding in 63% of their games at the Emirates.
Aston Villa
Firstly, it’s worth noting that the visitors play in the Europa Conference league tonight (Thursday evening), Their home match against Lille could serve as the occasion they need to get back to winning ways in their hunt for Champions League qualification, but could also cement their poor form of late, with Aston Villa winning only one of their last five league matches. They drew 3-3 against Brentford last time out.
Unai Emery’s side have struggled to emulate their home form on the road this season, resulting in a 44% win rate in away games, compared to their 69% win rate at home. They have however had no struggle scoring goals on the road, creating an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.48, which they have bettered by netting an average of 1.63 goals per game in away matches.
Aston Villa’s defensive record is the reason they have failed to match their home form when travelling, as Emery’s side have an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.51, which they have exceeded by conceding an average of 1.69 goals per game on the road this season. The Villans have kept a clean sheet in only 19% of their away matches in the league this season.
Prediction
t comes as no surprise that Arsenal are favoured so strongly by the bookmakers for this match, but that unfortunately means that though we expect Arsenal to win, there is little value to be found in backing them on the moneyline.
Arsenal have been in prolific form all season but particularly in their recent run which has led them to taking top spot of the Premier League table, and whilst Aston Villa have struggled to keep clean sheets on the road, they have had no issues finding the oppositions net. Therefore, OddsNow expect a high-scoring clash with both sides showcasing their goalscoring capabilities.
OddsNow's Pick: Over 3.5+ goals scored (6/5 @ bet365)