Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA Galaxy: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Stuart Pike

The two pacesetters in the early Western Conference standings face-off as Vancouver Whitecaps entertain LA Galaxy in the MLS.

Kick-off is at 3.30am Sunday UK time.

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Vancouver Whitecaps

With 13 points from their opening six matches, Vancouver enter the game a point ahead of second-placed Galaxy in the Conference table and with a game in hand, having recorded the best points per game (2.17) in MLS.

This will be the Canadian championship holders’ fourth successive fixture on home soil. After kicking off their campaign with a 1-1 draw against Charlotte, Vinny Sartini’s side have taken maximum points from their past two matches at BC Place - a 3-2 defeat of bitter rivals Portland Timbers, followed by a 4-0 romp over Toronto. They also bagged victories in their two away matches this term.

With 2.33 goals per match, Whitecaps are the MLS' most prolific side in front of goal, and they have the joint-best defensive record with Houston Dynamo (average one goal per game conceded). However, the fixture schedule may have contributed; Vancouver’s 2-1 loss at home to Real Salt Lake is their sole meeting with a club in the top half of the combined MLS standings.

Vancouver, who lost in the first round of the MLS play-offs last season after finishing sixth in the Conference standings, also fell at the first hurdle of the CONCACAF Champions Cup in February to Mexico’s Tigres.

While it is early in the regular season, the leaders’ expected goals numbers also make for cautionary reading, with their expected goal (xG) tally of 1.15 (1.3 at home) lower than their expected goals against of 1.34 (1.41 at home).

An average of 3.5 goals have been scored by both teams in Vancouver’s four home games to date, for a 75% BTTS rate.

LA Galaxy

Last weekend’s first defeat, 2-1 at city rivals Los Angeles FC, saw LA Galaxy slip behind this weekend’s hosts in the table. Prior to that, the early season pacesetters had secured two contrasting wins against Sporting Kansas City and bottom side San Jose Earthquakes, along with a 2-2 draw at Nashville, in their other road games. 

Galaxy, who finished second bottom in the Western Conference last season, have notched three wins, three draws and one loss overall. However, like Vancouver, their opening fixtures look to have been on the friendly side.

Both overall and in away matches, only this weekend’s opposition - across the whole MLS - boast a better record in front of goal than Greg Vanney’s side. They have netted 2 goals per match (from an xG of 1.66) and 2.25 (xG of 1.63) per away contest. They have also scored in every match, netting 2+ times in 57.1% of games and 3+ times in 42.9%.

However, last month’s 1-0 home victory over Seattle Sounders remains Galaxy’s only clean sheet; they have a BTTS rate of 85.7% and are yet to register a shutout away from Dignity Health Sports Park. They have conceded 1.75 goals per away game, from an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.73, and shipped 1.57 overall (xGA 1.64). 

The 16 goals converted for both sides in Galaxy’s away games - averaging four per match - is the second highest in the Conference, and third in MLS overall.

Prediction

This will be both side's first real test of the 2024 Regular Season, but Vancouver's home advantage coupled with their impressive statistics in defensive columns make them the sensible pick for this one. 

With the game also featuring the MLS' two most prolific teams, we also anticipate plenty of goal-mouth action.

OddsNow's Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps to win (11/10 @ BetGoodwin); Over 3.5+ goals scored (13/10 @ Midnite)

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