Torino vs Juventus: Betting Odds & Prediction

Mid-table Torino welcome city rivals and 36-time Italian champions Juventus on Saturday, with the visitors sitting a distant 20 points behind champions-elect Inter Milan. Kick-off at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino is at 5pm UK time.

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Torino

Ninth-placed Torino need some home comforts following a despiriting 3-2 defeat at struggling Empoli last time out. A brace from top scorer Duván Zapata looked to have earned them a point, only for Empoli to snatch a stoppage-time winner.

Torino’s form has been inconsistent but stronger at home; they average 1.8 points per home match but only 1.42 overall. Although their record of just 15 goals in front of their own fans (one per game - from an expected goals of 1.35) is modest, they have only conceded eight times (0.53 per game from an xGA of 0.94). No team has fewer home league goals against - although Inter and Bologna have both played one more.

Il Toro’s matches are largely tight encounters; they have the lowest aggregate of goals scored by both teams in both home matches and overall: their home fixtures yielding a mere 23 goals at an average of 1.53 per match. Their BTTS rate of 20% in their home matches is also the lowest in Serie A.

Ivan Juric’s side have only lost two home matches - to leaders Inter in October, and Lazio in February; these were also the only occasions they have conceded more than one goal at home. At 67%, their share of home clean sheets - which includes five in their last six - is a league high. However, they have also only scored more than one goal in three home matches.

Juventus 

A big pair of wins in the space of five days brought much-needed respite for embattled Max Allegri. A 2-0 first leg defeat of Lazio in Turin put the Old Lady in a strong position to reach the Coppa Italia final, before a 1-0 home victory over bitter rivals Fiorentina breathed some life into their flagging league campaign. 

The Bianconeri were top of the table in early 2024 after taking 52 points from the first 63 available - including just one defeat - but last weekend’s win was a first in the league since February (and only their second in 10). That barren run began after their 3-0 win at Lecce on January 21, which remains their last victory and clean sheet away from the Allianz Stadium. 

Juventus have won eight and lost four of their 15 away trips, at an average points per game of 1.8 - the third best in Serie A. They have scored an average of 1.47 goals per road game - conceding 0.93 in the process. Their expected goals and expected goals against from those fixtures are 1.34 and 1.38, respectively.

An average of 2.23 goals have been scored from both teams in Juventus’ 31 games - the second lowest in the division (only behind Saturday’s opponents Torino).

However, their away games have been slightly less tight, with an average of 2.4 goals scored. Juventus have kept clean sheets in 40% of their away games - second only to Inter. They have still only conceded more than one goal in five games this season - although four of those came back-to-back in February/March. They have shown signs of tightening up in that area, however, with just one goal shipped over their past four matches in all competitions.

Derbies can often prove a great leveller, but the Derby della Mole usually bucks that trend. In this lop-sided rivalry, Torino have only beaten their more illustrious neighbours five times in their history out of 46 attempts; their last triumph came in April 2015. 

October’s return fixture ended in a 2-0 victory for Juve with second half strikes from Federico Gatti and Arkadiusz Milik, who could be set to return following a five-match adductor injury layoff.

Prediction

Juventus (5/4, various outlets) are favourites to inflict a third home defeat of the season on local rivals Torino. Both defences are likely to be on top, so we anticipate a low-scoring affair in this one. 

OddsNow's Pick: Under 2 goals scored (6/4 @ StarSports)