Burnley vs Brighton: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Burnley host Brighton this Saturday as they continue their fight against the drop.
The visitors still have an outside shot of qualifying for European football, so there is plenty to play for. The two teams drew 1-1 at the Amex Stadium earlier this season. Kick-off at Turf Moor is set for 3pm.
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Burnley
Burnley are running out of time if they want to avoid returning to the Championship at the first time of asking. They suffered a damaging 1-0 defeat away to relegation rivals Everton in their last match, which leaves them 19th with 19 points, six adrift of Nottingham Forest in 17th with six games left to play. Before that they had been in decent form, going unbeaten in four games, but this feels like a must-win with only three home games left and tough away trips to Manchester United and Tottenham yet to come.
Vincent Kompany’s side haven’t lost in their past two home games, drawing with Wolves and beating Brentford, and need to carry that on having not had much joy at Turf Moor this season. Burnley have the worst home record in the league, picking up just nine points from sixteen games (W2 D3 L11). They have an average expected goals (xG) of only 1.10 at home, and have actually slightly underperformed that, scoring just one goal per home game on average.
The Clarets have failed to score in 44% of home matches, and the lack of a reliable goalscorer has been a big factor behind their struggles this season, with no individual having more than four goals in the league. Four players have managed that, and one of those is winger Jacob Bruun Larsen, who has scored in each of the last two home games.
Brighton
The Seagulls have struggled to find consistency during their debut season in Europe. After winning five of their first six league games, they have failed to win back-to-back games since then. They are without a win in three and were comfortably beaten 3-0 at home to Arsenal last weekend, leaving them 10th in the table with 43 points, but they are still in with a shout of returning to Europe next season, lying six points behind Manchester United in sixth.
Brighton have won just one of their last ten away games, and they have conceded two or more goals in six of those games. They did manage to keep a clean sheet in their last away match, a 0-0 stalemate at Brentford, which was a welcome one as it was just their second away from home this season. They have been a mixed bag on their travels, averaging one point per game.
They have a positive expected goal difference on the road – 1.55 for, 1.45 against – but in reality have scored 1.44 goals per game and conceded 1.88 goals per game, with that last stat in particular perhaps highlighting the turnover at the goalkeeping position this season. Roberto de Zerbi likes to rotate his goalkeepers Bart Verbruggen and Jason Steele, but Verbruggen appears to have established himself as number one for now, starting the last four games.
Prediction
It is a massive game for Burnley and the pressure will be on them to get a result, but Brighton will be motivated to make sure their season doesn’t peter out. Both sides will look to dominate the ball so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top in that particular battle, as it may provide the key.
The home crowd will be desperate to see their team win, which may play into the visitors’ hands if Burnley push too far forward. Brighton are still missing key players, but they have better quality in their squad than Burnley.
OddsNow are backing them to get back to winning ways here, and for Burnley’s struggles in front of goal to continue.