Ukraine vs Iceland: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Ukraine collide with Iceland in the EURO 2024 Play-off Finals to decide which place will earn a place in Germany this summer.
The winner of the match will join Belgium, Slovakia and Romania when the full tournament starts in June. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time in Wroclaw.
Recent Form
Ukraine
Ukraine left it late against Bosnia-Herzegovina in the semi-finals on Thursday. Goals from Roman Yaremchuk and Artem Dovbyk in the final stages secured their passage to the Path B Play-off Final after the hosts took the lead early in the second half.
Ukraine dominated much of the affair, retaining 66% possession and 12 shots to Bosnia's eight. The away side also recorded a 1.59 expected goal (xG) tally, compared to the 0.89 averaged by the hosts.
This exceeded their average xG in their ten matches prior (1.17). Ukraine will hope to fare better defensively against Iceland, though; their last ten matches have seen an average expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.43, though they have conceded slightly less at 1.2 goals per game.
Their defensive record makes for much better reading in their home games, however. Though the match doesn't take place on Ukrainian soil, a wealth of Ukrainian's will be in attendance given its hosting in neighbouring Poland. Giving the feeling of 'home away from home', Ukraine will look to replicate their recent record on home turf, where they've conceded just 0.25 goals per game in their last four matches. They also kept clean sheets in three of those four.
In their last ten matches, Ukraine have only failed to score in two. The matches have averaged a total of 2.8 goals.
🇺🇦🆚🇮🇸 Who'll book a place at #EURO2024? pic.twitter.com/Is5qkj8ZB2
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) March 22, 2024
Iceland
Iceland cruised into the play-off final with a 4-1 away victory over Israel on Thursday evening. They look to secure a place at a European Championships for just a second time after reaching the quarter-final stage of the tournament back in 2016.
Age Heraide's side recorded an impressive xG tally of 2.17 during the Israel match. The figure far exceeds Iceland's average xG in their previous ten matches, which sits at 1.28.
Israel meanwhile averaged an xG of 1.67 in the play-off semi-final, which slightly exceeds Iceland's xGA of 1.49 in their previous ten encounters.
Ukraine will feel like the home side, despite the neutral setting, due to the match taking place in Poland which could spell danger for Iceland; they have averaged an xGA of 1.74 in their last six games on the road.
They have however scored an average of 1.67 goals away from home during that time, with Iceland's away matches averaging 3.33 goals in total.
Prediction
Ukraine rightly enter as strong favourites but, with them coming in at 1/2 on the moneyline, there's little sense in backing them outright. Both sides' games have seen goals in recent times though, with both averaging 2.8 goals in total in their last ten.
More goals can be expected on Tuesday as both sides look to claim a spot in Germany this summer.