Swansea City vs Cardiff City: Betting Odds & Prediction

Written by: Andrew Beharie

Relegation-threatened Swansea City host bitter rivals Cardiff City in the South Wales Derby in the EFL Championship on Saturday. 

Kick-off is set for 12:30pm UK time at the Swansea.com Stadium. 

Recent Form

Swansea City

Swansea were brought back down to earth with last week’s 1-0 defeat at Bristol City, ending a three-game unbeaten streak which included wins against Sunderland and Blackburn Rovers. That recent run of form has kept the Swans above the relegation zone going into the final nine games of the season, with Luke Williams’ side only five points clear of 23rd-placed Sheffield Wednesday in 15th. 

The main factor in the Swans’ downfall this season is simple - they can’t stop leaking goals. They’ve conceded 58 goals from their 37 league games (1.56 goals per games). Only Plymouth Argyle, Blackburn Rovers, Huddersfield Town and Rotherham United have conceded more. 

Swansea haven't enjoyed great home form either, with William’s side only picking up 20 points in the Championship this season at home - the third worst in the division. The arrival of Williams from Notts County has failed to inspire any sort of turnaround in the Swans’ fortunes, with just three wins from his first 11 games in charge. 

However, history could prove a saving grace for the hosts, as Swansea have won seven out of the last 10 meetings between the two sides, and have never lost both league derbies in the same season in their history. The Swans also have a good record going forward in 2024, scoring in all but three of their league fixtures since the turn of the year. 

Cardiff City

Cardiff have hit form at just the right time, winning their last four games to push them back into the hunt for the play-offs.

Erol Bulut’s side have made a habit of winning by slender margins, with their last nine victories in the league all coming by one-goal margins, suggesting Cardiff may rely on fortune again to secure their first ever league double over their neighbours. 

Cardiff have also tightened up defensively since a 4-1 defeat at Norwich last month, conceding just two goals in their previous five games, although they were outnumbered on expected goals in three of those games. The Bluebirds, however, have an awful record on their rivals' turf, registering just two victories at the Swansea.com Stadium since 1997. 

Cardiff will need to be vigilant in the second half of this clash if they are to end their bad run in Swansea, as 18 of the 27 goals Bulut’s side have conceded this season away from home have come in the second half. 

Prediction

Swansea may historically have the bragging rights in this fixture, but their relegation fears have stemmed mainly from their poor home record this season, while Cardiff have hit form at the perfect time to bounce into the play-off picture. 

The Bluebirds have found a way to win ugly, so a low scoring affair could be on the cards in the early kick-off. 

OddsNow's Picks: Cardiff to win (3/1 @ StarSports); Under 2.5 goals (4/5 @ William Hill)

 

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