Chelsea vs Leicester City: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Rob Norcup

Chelsea host Championship pacesetters Leicester at Stamford Bridge this Sunday with a place in the FA Cup semi-finals up for grabs.

The tie sees a rematch of the 2021 FA Cup Final which the Foxes won 1-0 in front of a covid-reduced Wembley crowd of just 20,000. Kick-off is set for 12:45pm UK time at Stamford Bridge. 

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Chelsea

Sunday's match has a lot riding on it for the home side, with the Blues’ season pivoting on FA Cup glory (and European qualification). They currently sit eleventh in the Premier League, eight points adrift of sixth place.

Chelsea’s Cup performances at Wembley maybe a bit ropey in recent seasons, but their FA Cup form at Stamford Bridge has been decent. They’re unbeaten in ten FA Cup games at home and haven’t tasted defeat since a 2-0 5 th round reverse against Man Utd in 2019. During that unbeaten 10-game run, the Blues have netted 27 goals, an average of 2.7 goals a game.

It's been goals galore in games involving Chelsea recently. The League Cup Final aside, there’s been 35 goals netted in the Blues’ last 9 games, an average of 3.88 goals a game. Both teams have found the net in all but one of those games. 

With Chelsea not in action for almost a fortnight after Sunday’s clash, manager Mauricio Pochettino is expected to field his strongest side, similar to the one that started against Newcastle earlier this week.

The injury list has been getting longer for Poch. Defender Levi Colwill picked up a knock earlier this month and isn't expected to feature. Influential midfielder Enzo Fernandez is suspended. 

Leicester City

The Foxes have already claimed a Premier League scalp on the road, when beating Bournemouth 1-0 in the 5 th Round last month. That game came in the middle of Leicester’s worst downturn in league form this season with three straight losses against Middlesbrough, Leeds and QPR. They’ve stopped the rot somewhat since with a 1-0 victory against Sunderland and a 2-2 draw with Hull.

Striker Jamie Vardy has rediscovered his goalscoring touch of late, scoring four goals in his last three starts.

One constant throughout has been the Foxes’ goalscoring ability; they have netted in 24 successive matches in all competitions - a run that stretches back to November 11th and a 1-0 defeat away at Middlesbrough.

Leicester will also take heart from the fact that fellow Championship outfit Leeds United scored twice against Chelsea in the previous round. Enzo Maresca’s side have the top expected goals (xG) tally in the Championship of 1.72, and they’ll be expecting to give the Blues’ backline a tough workout.

Leicester, like Chelsea, haven’t got another match for almost a fortnight after this and though their priority is safeguarding their automatic promotion spot, they’ll be expected to play their strongest side too.

Prediction

OddsNow expect Chelsea to be involved in another entertaining FA Cup goalfest. In the Premier League this season, Chelsea have scored 47 goals and conceded 45, with both teams scoring in 67% of those games. More recently, that stat has increased even further with both teams scoring in 9 of the last 12 Chelsea games (75%). Coupled with Leicester's goalscoring exploits, plenty of goals can be expected this weekend.

Though Chelsea rightly enter as favourites, odds on the away side winning on the moneyline come in fairly wide and might be worth a shot. Chelsea have been inconsistent to say the least this season, and while Leicester haven't been at their best recently, an away victory wouldn't be as big a surprise as the odds currently suggest. 

Backing the away win at 6/1 outright while also covering your back on the over X amount of goals line would be a wise move. 

OddsNow's Picks: Over 3.5 goals (29/20 @ Betfair); Leicester to win outright (6/1 @ Sky Bet)

 

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