Burnley vs Brentford: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Andrew Beharie

Burnley and Brentford collide at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon in a clash of two of the Premier League's struggling sides. 

Kick off is set for 3pm UK time. 

Recent Form 

Burnley 

Burnley have suffered a wretched season since winning promotion back the Premier League last May. Vincent Kompany’s side sit 19th in the league on just 14 points and are set to record one of the lowest points tallies in Premier League history alongside fellow strugglers Sheffield United.

The Clarets’ issue of failing to hold onto leads came back to bite them yet again last time out, as they let a 2-0 lead slip to draw 2-2 at West Ham United, bringing their total points dropped from winning positions to 20.

Their underlying numbers suggest that Burnley have underperformed significantly defensively this season, with the Clarets conceding 11.4 goals more than their expected goals against (xGA) tally suggests. The club are also conceding 2.2 goals per game, the second worst in the division, while goalkeeper James Trafford has a goal prevented measurement of -7.47, the worst in the Premier League this season.

Burnley have also suffered going forward, with only Sheffield United scoring less than the Clarets’ 27 goals this season. They are also creating just 0.92 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, the second worst in the league.

However, the loan signing of David Datro Fofana has breathed some life into Burnley’s forward line, with the forward scoring three and assisting another in his seven league appearances so far, including an incredible strike against West Ham last time out.

Brentford

Brentford have also had a turbulent season. The loss of striker Ivan Toney for the first half of the campaign severely damaged the side in an attacking sense. Brentford have underperformed their xG this season by 5.4 goals per match. 

The return of Toney has not had the desired winning effect for Thomas Frank, as although the Bees have begun to find the net on a more frequent basis again, scoring 14 goals in the nine fixtures since Toney’s return, their inability to keep the ball out of the net at the other end has hindered their survival chances significantly. They've conceded 28 goals in their 11 fixtures since Christmas Day.

Brentford’s form has imploded recently, with the Bees picking up just 10 points from their last 51 available in the league, leaving Frank’s side just five points clear of the relegation zone.

A significant weakness has been their aerial ability defensively, with 17 of their 52 conceded goals coming from headers - the most in the division.

Prediction

Burnley look resigned for an immediate return to the Championship. Brentford, meanwhile, desperately need to start picking up wins to avoid joining Burnley in the second-tier next season.

Although both defences have been a mess this season, Brentford’s forward line should have enough to get Frank’s side over the line.

OddsNow's Picks: Brentford to win (6/5 @ 10Bet)

 

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