Stoke City vs Norwich City: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Relegation-threatened Stoke City host play-off hopefuls Norwich City at the Bet365 Stadium on Saturday at 3pm.
Norwich defeated the Potters 1-0 in the reverse fixture at Carrow Road in September, courtesy of a Jack Stacey goal.
Recent Form
Stoke City
19th placed Stoke head into Saturday following an impressive 2-1 away win against a Preston side who were unbeaten in their last seven games prior. The result was Stoke manager Steven Schumacher’s fifth win in charge of Stoke in all competitions, having gained only 1.13 points per game during his first 16 games in charge.
Stoke are only three points above the relegation zone however, mainly due to their horrific home form.
The Potters average only 1.22 points at home, the sixth-worst home record in the league. This is primarily due to being the lowest home scorers in the Championship, having scored 14 goals (0.78 goals per game) from an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.33.
Despite their woeful goalscoring form, Stoke have the joint eighth-best home defence in the league, conceding 1.17 goals a game. They have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their home matches (7/18), a stat only bettered by five teams, all of whom are placed eighth or higher in the Championship heading into this weekend.
Potters fans will hope to see more entertaining matches. This season, an average of only 1.94 match goals have been scored at the Bet365 stadium, less than at any other ground in the Championship.
Norwich City
Following their 5-0 home victory over bottom side Rotherham United, David Wagner’s side now find themselves in the play-off spots and have only lost once in their last eight matches heading into Saturday.
However, the Canaries have failed to win in their last four away matches, picking up only two points in the process. Norwich have the seventh worst away record in the league this season, gaining 0.94 points per away game compared to their 2.16 points per home game.
Norwich have guaranteed goals on their travels this season, averaging 3.61 total match goals away from home, which is the highest in the league. They have exceeded their expected away goals figure (1.19), scoring 29 goals in 18 away matches, which equates to an average of 1.61 goals a game.
Defensively, Norwich have been disastrous away from home, conceding two goals per match from an xG against of 1.77. Only bottom-placed Rotherham have conceded more on their travels.
Joint top-scorer Jon Rowe is still out due to a hamstring problem he suffered against QPR over a month ago. However, American striker Josh Sargent and Argentine playmaker Gabriel Sara have filled the attacking void in his absence. In their last six games, Sargent has scored five goals, while Sara has scored four and assisted two.
Josh Sargent reporting for international duty 🫡🇺🇸 https://t.co/VswOmNyLCU
— Norwich City FC (@NorwichCityFC) March 13, 2024
Prediction
Both teams will see this as a must-win game. Stoke will see this as an opportunity against one of the worst away teams in the league to drift further away from the relegation zone, whilst Norwich need a win to stay in the play-offs.
Stoke have recently improved under Schumacher, winning two out of their last three league games against playoff hopefuls Middlesbrough and Preston. Their only loss during this period was a spirited 1-0 away defeat to Leeds, where they only had ten men.
The home victory on the moneyline makes sense when considering the away's side troubles on their travels.