Roma vs AC Milan: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Roma welcome AC Milan to the Stadio Olimpico in the Europa League quarter-final second leg on Thursday following their 1-0 victory at the San Siro last week.
The hosts know that a place in the semi-finals will be theirs providing they avoid defeat in the Italian capital. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time.
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Roma
The hosts head into this match full of confidence thanks to their resurgence under club legend and now manager Daniele De Rossi. Since De Rossi’s appointment in January, Roma have gained 2.36 points per game in Serie A, taking them from ninth to fifth in the league. In Europe, he has been similarly impressive only losing once in his five matches in charge - a 1-0 loss to Brighton after demolishing the Seagulls in the reverse leg 4-0 prior to that.
De Rossi’s side have significantly overperformed offensively, having scored 2.8 goals a game at home in the Europa League this season from an expected goals (xG) tally of just 1.57. The home side are always a goal threat, with Romelu Lukaku being the joint second top-scorer in the Europa League this season with seven goals.
Defensively, Roma have been superb all season in Europe, especially at home. They have conceded an extremely impressive one goal from their five Europa League home games this season; however, they have significantly overperformed defensively according to their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.11 home goals conceded per game.
However, they will be missing two key players, midfielder Bryan Cristante, due to suspension and centre-back Evan N’Dicka following his collapse during Sunday’s abandoned match with Udinese.
These second legs 🥵#UEL pic.twitter.com/5KzmM800Gl
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) April 15, 2024
AC Milan
The away side will be hoping to convert their domestic form into continental form come Thursday evening. Milan, second in Serie A, have an incredibly impressive away record in Serie A, with only runaway leaders Inter having a better away record than I Rossoneri. They have scored in every away league match this season.
Unfortunately for Milan fans, this away form hasn’t been the same in Europe this season. They failed to score in 40% of their away European matches - against Borussia Dortmund and PSG in the Champions League group stage. However, both of these sides went on to progress to the Champions League quarter-final, showing the level of opposition Milan were up against.
Since dropping to the Europa League, Milan’s away matches have been extremely entertaining, losing 3-2 away at Rennes and beating Slavia Praha 3-1, an average of 4.5 total goals a game.
Milan have slightly overperformed offensively in Europe, scoring 1.4 goals per home game from an xG of 1.21. Five of their seven away goals have come in the Europa League. Defensively, however, Milan have nearly matched their xGA, having conceded 1.6 away goals from an xGA of 1.59.
Prediction
After a run of seven consecutive victories in all competitions, Milan have had a torrid week. Stefano Pioli’s side followed up their 1-0 home loss to Roma in the reverse leg with a shock 3-3 away draw to relegation-threatened Sassuolo.
Roma have gone from strength to strength under De Rossi, and their six clean sheets in their last seven matches in all competitions highlight Roma’s ability to grind out results and keep teams out.
Despite having key players injured, OddsNow can see Roma’s sky-high confidence and defensive stability frustrating Milan. As the game progresses, Roma should also have more chances on the counter to put the tie to bed and progress to the semi-finals.