West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen: Betting Odds & Prediction
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West Ham United face one of their toughest tests of the season when they welcome newly-crowned Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen to the London Stadium on Thursday night.
A 5-0 hammering of Werder Bremen on Sunday afternoon ensured Xabi Alonso and his Leverkusen side comprehensively secured the Bundesliga championship for the first time in their 120-year history and with five German matchdays to spare. Leverkusen’s unbeaten streak remarkably extended to 42 matches ahead of the tie and West Ham face an uphill battle to overturn the 2-0 deficit and progress to the next round against the probable favourites.
David Moyes’ side agonisingly fell short in the first leg in Germany. Jonas Hofmann made a late breakthrough in the 83rd minute before Nigerian Victor Boniface made sure of the home triumph with a stoppage-time second. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time in the English capital.
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West Ham
The Hammers' experience in the Europa League has been a positive one this season, albeit coming up short in their prior fixture to Leverkusen. They comfortably emerged as Group A winners with 15/18 points and comprehensively dispatched of Freiburg 5-1 on aggregate in the Round of 16. Lucas Paqueta, who is suspended for the return fixture, and Mohammed Kudus have notably impressed for David Moyes’ side thus far with a return of four and seven goals respectively. Keeping the Ghanian quiet could prove pivotal for the German outfit if they are to progress to the semi-finals.
The West Ham faithful will be buoyed by their exemplary home form in Europe and the impressive statistics in comparison to their domestic form. The Irons boast an average of two points per game (W6, D0, L3) in their European exploits thus far and an exemplary three points at home, where they've won every game. Currently sitting in eighth in the Premier League, an average of 1.45 points per game and a 35%-win ratio at the London Stadium would suggest the Irons have thrived significantly better under European lights this campaign.
The Irons, led by Kudus, have demonstrated their goalscoring prowess with an average 2.75 goals scored per match in front of their home faithful, compared to a dismal 0.80 on the road. West Ham have scored in all of their home fixtures so far and boast an average shots conversion rate of 22% on home turf compared to a substantially lower average of 10% on their travels.
Moyes will be hoping for Jarrod Bowen to return from a lower back problem to help relieve the goalscoring burden on Kudus ahead of the crucial tie, particularly given the absence of the influential Paqueta.
A 75% clean sheet record in front of their home faithful and an exceptional average of 0.25 goals conceded per match will encourage Moyes that his West Ham side could perhaps nullify the threat of free-scoring Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen’s form and results this season have been nothing short of extraordinary. Their Bundesliga triumph ended Bayern Munich’s 11-year dominance of the league, who find themselves languishing in 2nd position, an astonishing 16 points behind still unbeaten Leverkusen.
Alonso's men have also excelled in Europe, where they retained a 100%-win record in their group with little difficulty. However, they did require two heroic comebacks in both Round of 16 legs against minnows Qarabag to confirm their quarter-final status against the Hammers, with forward Patrik Schick sparing the blushes for Leverkusen with late strikes on both occasions.
Leverkusen have been in imperious form throughout their European fixtures thus far, regardless of the venue. An astonishing average of 2.78 points per game (W8, D1, L0), including an average of 2.50 on their travels (W3, D1, L0) is testament to the maturity and defensive solidarity of the German side.
Leverkusen have triumphed in 89% of their European fixtures and impressively prevailed in 75% of their away games, their only dropped points coming away to Qarabag in a 2-2 draw.
Spearheaded by Schick and Boniface, Leverkusen have also demonstrated their proficient finishing capabilities across their European fixtures, averaging 2.89 goals per match and a goal scored every thirty-one minutes. This drops to 1.75 on their travels though, compared to an astounding 3.80 in front of their home faithful, which will undoubtedly yield hope for the Hammers and their backline.
David Moyes will be wary of Leverkusen’s own defensive solidarity, however. The Bundesliga side can boast an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.31 on their travels and have conceded 0.78 goals per match. They have only conceded seven goals across this European campaign, demonstrating their defensive astuteness, regardless of the venue.
Prediction
West Ham will no doubt go all-out in search of a remarkable comeback in front of their own fans, but it's hard to back against a Leverkusen side who have not lost a single game in all competitions this season. Buoyed by their Bundesliga triumph at the weekend, OddsNow back the German side to continue their remarkable campaign with a statement win in London.