Monza vs Napoli: Betting Odds & Prediction

The battle for European football intensifies this weekend as eleventh-placed Monza host eighth-placed Napoli at the U-Power Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

A win for the hosts will bring them level on points with Napoli and could put them in place for a late European charge. The latter need a win to heap pressure on the other European hopefuls, as only seven points separate them from fifth-placed Roma. 

Italy is likely to have seven teams in Europe next season due to being the nation currently sitting at the top of the UEFA Co-efficient Rankings. Kick-off is set for 2pm UK time.

Recent Form 

Monza

Monza head into this match on a good run of form, having won 17 points from their last nine games (1.89 points per match). Most recently, however, they fought to a 1-0 loss away to Torino, who leap-frogged them into tenth in the table following the result.

The hosts have been in formidable home form, having gained ten of the last fifteen points available at the U-Power stadium, keeping three clean sheets in these five matches. Across the entire season, Monza has gained 1.53 points per game at home, giving them the tenth-best home record in Serie A. 

Raffaele Palladino’s side has been low-scoring this season at the U-Power, having only scored 1.2 goals per home game, which is the eighth-worst record in the league. This is despite slightly overperforming their expected goals tally (xG) of 1.17.

However, Monza have been much more impressive defensively, conceding only 1.13 goals per home game, therefore overperforming their expected goals against tally (xGA) of 1.32. They have also kept a clean sheet in 47% of their home matches.

They will however be without captain and Italy international Matteo Pessina, who was sent off in their last match. He has started all 30 of Monza’s league matches so far, and it is yet to be seen how Monza will cope without their star player.

Napoli

The reigning Serie A champions are enduring a horrendous season which has seen them meander in eighth place heading into the fixture. They have already sacked their manager twice this season and are now managed by the Slovakia national team manager, Francesco Calzona.

Calzona has had mixed results since being appointed and while Napoli having lost just once in his first six games, three of those have ended in draws. 

Napoli have gained 1.53 points per game on the road this season. After being unbeaten in their first seven away league matches this season, they have only won once on their travels since the 25th of November (a run of eight games).

Offensively, they have scored the third most away goals in the league, at 1.6 goals per away game, slightly overperforming their xG tally of 1.54. They have fared well in defensive quarters, conceding only one goal a game on their travels despite having an expected goal against (xGA) tally of 1.2. Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their away fixtures so far. 

Key player Kvicha Kvaratskhelia is a doubt, having been injured during the latest international break and after only training individually this week. He is a huge miss for the Naples outfit, having contributed to 14 of their 44 league goals this season (31.81%). However, Victor Osimhen is fit and has scored ten of his eleven Serie A goals this season against bottom-half teams, which could be a good omen for his side.

Prediction

Despite Napoli’s horrific recent away record and star man Kvicha being a doubt for Sunday, Napoli still have a number of game-changers fit and ready for Sunday’s game. Both Politano and Osimhen have contributed over ten league goals this season.

All four of Monza’s home defeats have come to sides in the top half of the table this season, and it is yet to be seen how significant the effect of not having their captain, Matteo Pessina, is.

OddsNow's Pick: Napoli to win (10/11 @ QuinnBet)