PSV v AZ Alkmaar: Betting Odds and Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Title-chasing PSV Eindhoven look to move a step closer to their 25th league title as they take on an AZ Alkmaar side still harbouring hopes of continental qualification.
Kick-off at Philips Stadium comes at 17:45 GMT on Saturday.
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven
PSV bounced back from a shock 3-1 loss to NEC Nijmegen — their first of the Eridivisie campaign — with a comfortable 2-0 win over Excelsior on Tuesday.
That victory was dominant, with Eindhoven ensuring their hosts did not manage a single shot on target across the 90 minutes en route to a 12th shutout of the season.
This defensive stability has been vital in their title push, with only 16 goals conceded so far this season and only seven of those coming in home matches.
That is not to overlook their prolific attack, however. A stunning 84 goals have been bagged by Peter Bosz's side, with 48 of them coming in away games.
Captain Luuk De Jong has been vital for PSV this season, with the veteran striker scoring 22 times at an xG per 90 of 0.88 — making him the league leader in that metric
At the Phillips Arena, PSV have won 12 of their 13 league games in 2023-24.
Gearing up 💪#PSVAZ pic.twitter.com/qSOgPdoAu7
— PSV (@PSV) April 4, 2024
AZ Alkmaar
Alkmaar come into Saturday’s clash off the back of a shock 5-0 defeat to lowly Heracles, leaving them sat in fourth place on 52 points (W15 D7 L6) ahead of the weekend.
Before Wednesday's loss, AZ were in good form with four wins in their last five games, including four clean sheets in that run.
Pascal Jansen's troops have been strong on the road this season, losing just two matches away from the AFAS Stadium (W6 D5 L3) and netting 22 times.
Their defeat to Heracles was only the fifth time they have failed to score this term, though their solid defensive foundations are arguably their strongest asset anyway.
Only PSV and Feyenoord have conceded less than their 28 goals in as many league games.
To get anything from the Philips Stadium they will need striker Evangelos Pavlidis to be in top form. The Greek striker has 24 goals this term from an xG (expected goals) ratio of just 21.7.
Prediction
Though Alkmaar's most recent result suggests this could be a one-sided affair, the two teams' overall records point to a close contest. PSV are ruthless at home but up against one of the league's best defences, this may be an encounter where they simply have to grind things out to take another step towards the title.
Both have shown incredible robustness at the back so far this term, and we expect this to result in a low-scoring affair.