Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Josh Gillen

Manchester City host Real Madrid in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals on Wednesday evening.

The tie follows the side's thrilling 3-3 draw in the Spanish capital last week which also saw six different goalscorers. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time. 

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Manchester City

The hosts have been in fine form, winning nine of their last thirteen matches in all competitions and drawing four. Their 5-1 home victory over Luton Town at the weekend made it 27 matches unbeaten in all competitions for Pep Guardiola's side. 

City have also won eight of their last ten matches at home, drawing the other two, and have averaged three goals per home game in Europe so far. Their 27 goals scored makes them the competition's highest scorers. Their average expected goals (xG) tally of 2.59 at home has also impressed. 

However, City did struggle to create clear-cut chances in the Spanish capital last week, averaging an xG tally of just 0.64 inside the box. Thankfully, superb strikes from Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol from outside the area made up for these pitfalls, but the home side will be anxious to pose a more direct attacking threat in front of goal this time around. 

Their four goals conceded at home leaves them with an average of just one per game, though this is slightly higher than their projected expected goals against (xGA) tally of 0.61. 

Real Madrid

Carlo Ancelotti's side will be anxious on securing revenge in Manchester after City knocked them out at the semi-final stage of the competition last season. A 1-0 away win at Mallorca continued their good form in La Liga, where they sit eight points clear of second-place, but Los Blancos will be looking to assert their dominance on the continental front in search of a record 15th European title. 

Madrid have won all four of their away fixtures in Europe this term, scoring nine and conceding five in the process. Only one of these games have ended in a clean sheet though, an ominous trend as they prepare to visit the best attacking side in the competition. 

Their xG of 0.7 from the first leg will need to improve greatly if they are to upset City on home soil and progress to the last four. 

Prediction

Even the sport's most casual observers should know that writing off Madrid in this competition is a naive move, but City have been absolutely relentless on all fronts since the turn of the year. Their home record is sublime, and they'll be further boosted by their climbing to the top of the Premier League table at the weekend after rivals Arsenal and Liverpool slipped up. 

The Etihad has also seen an average of four goals in total in European fixtures so far this campaign and, coupled with the scoreline from the first leg, it's hard to see anything but more goals again in this one. 

OddsNow's Pick: Manchester City to win (4/6 @ Coral); Over 3.25+ goals scored (11/10 @ LiveScoreBet)

 

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