Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Bayern Munich host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night for the return-leg of their quarter-final tie. Everything is still to play for after their match in North London ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw last week.
The hosts are a club accustomed to lifting trophies, but after Bayer Leverkusen secured the Bundesliga title on Sunday evening, the Champions League is now their last opportunity to bring silverware back to Munich. Eager to avoid a fourth consecutive quarterfinal exit, the Bavarian giants are determined to make a resounding statement on their home turf.
The visitors are looking to reach the competition’s semi-finals for the first time since 2009 but face a difficult task needing to win at the Allianz Arena. Kick-off is set for 8pm.
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Bayern Munich
Both teams have played only one match since the opening fixture of the quarter-final, and Bayern Munich cruised to a comfortable 2-0 home victory over FC Köln on Saturday. Thomas Tuchel’s side have put themselves in a great position ahead of this game after their hard-fought 2-2 draw at the Emirates.
The hosts are formidable at home and remain unbeaten in the Champions League when playing at the Allianz Arena this season. This home form has translated over to the Bundesliga, where Bayern have averaged 2.47 points per home game, as opposed to an average of only 1.86 points per away game. They won their last home match in the Champions League with a resounding 3-0 victory over Lazio.
Bayern are prolific at home, scoring nine goals in only four home matches so far in the Champions League this season. This has been replicated in the league, where Bayern have an expected goal (xG) tally of 2.42 in their home matches, which they have exceeded by netting an average of 3.27 goals per home game. They have failed to score in only 13% of their home matches.
Tuchel’s side have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their Champions League home matches this season, however showed they can be vulnerable to capable counter-attacking sides when they conceded three goals to Manchester United at home in the group stages of the competition. In the Bundesliga, Bayern’s defensive record has been formidable, bettering an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.04 by conceding an average of only 0.73 goals per home match.
It's crunch time 😬#UCL pic.twitter.com/l1KSV5pe3e
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 15, 2024
Arsenal
In their only game since the first leg of the quarter-final, Arsenal lost 2-0 at home to a strong Aston Villa side on Sunday. Mikel Arteta’s side will need to show character to move past this loss that has removed them from top spot in the Premier League if they are to be able to achieve victory on Wednesday night.
Arsenal have won only one of their four away matches in the Champions League so far this season, suffering a 1-0 defeat in their last away match against FC Porto. Despite this, Arsenal have a brilliant away record in the Premier League, averaging 2.06 points per away game.
The Gunners have been prolific away from home in the Premier League, bettering an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.71 by netting an average of 2.31 goals per away game. They have however failed to convert this form into the Champions League, scoring only four goals from four away matches in the competition.
Despite only conceding five goals in four away matches in the Champions League, Arteta’s side have once again failed to replicate their form from the Premier League. On the road in the Premier League, Arsenal have an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 0.95, which they have bettered by conceding an average of only 0.69 goals per away game.
Prediction
Occasions like this one are difficult to predict, with anything possible in a match of this magnitude. Although Arsenal’s away form in the competition may suggest they come into the tie as the underdog, the Gunners have the tools to expose Bayern’s vulnerability to swift counterattacks, and with Bayern expected to have more of the ball in this leg, the potential for another high-scoring match is clear.
If history is anything to go by, each of the last two times Arsenal have met Bayern in the Champions League knockout stages, the second leg has seen six goals scored, and OddsNow expect another high-scoring clash.