Barcelona vs PSG: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Barcelona look to secure a place in the Champions League semi-finals as they entertain Paris Saint-Germain at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys on Tuesday evening.
The hosts head into the fixture with a 3-2 lead from the first leg in the French capital. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time.
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Barcelona
Barcelona know avoiding defeat will be enough to see them secure passage to their 19th European semi-final. Their impressive victory in the French capital was followed up with a 1-0 away victory in Cadiz at the weekend which saw them claim their tenth win in their last 12 outings.
Their overall form in Europe has been impressive this season; they've won six of their nine matches in the Champions League, seeing them finish top of Group H and then dispose of Napoli with a 4-2 aggregate win in the round-of-sixteen.
All four of their home fixtures in the competition have ended in victory. Barca have netted 12 goals across those matches in the process at an average of three per game, exceeding an already impressive expected goals (xG) tally of 2.26. Xavi's side are yet to fail to score at home in the Champions League this term.
They have also fared much better on home soil in Europe; seven goals conceded on the road compares to just three on home turf, where they've averaged an expected goals against (xGA) tally of one so far.
It's crunch time 😬#UCL pic.twitter.com/l1KSV5pe3e
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 15, 2024
PSG
The French champions know only victory will see them progress to the semi-finals, yet have registered just one win away at Barcelona in their history (a 4-1 win back in 2021). PSG's record in the competition this season makes for an even taller mountain to scale, with Luis Enrique's side winning just one of their four away outings so far. That victory did come on Spanish soil though, when they overcame Real Sociedad by a 2-1 margin in the round-of-sixteen.
Surprisingly, PSG have managed only five goals across these four matches, despite an average xG of 1.69 away from home in the competition. Nevertheless, they have found the net in all four of these games, but will need multiple goals if they are to progress to the final four on Tuesday evening.
Their eight goals conceded on the road certainly makes for a concerning read. At an average of two per game, PSG have shipped more than their projected xGA tally of 1.68, and are yet to register an away defeat in the competition this term.
Prediction
Though PSG certainly possess the firepower to hurt this Barca side, their worrying defensive record in away games coupled with Barca's good form on home turf makes a home victory the sensible pick in this one.