Southampton vs Preston North End: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Rob Norcup

Southampton entertain Preston North End at St Mary’s in the Sky Bet Championship on Tuesday.

Saints must win to keep their automatic promotion dreams intact while Preston need maximum points to keep their very slim play-off chances alive. The match kicks off at 8pm UK time.

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Southampton 

While the Championship top-three have all dropped points in the past couple of games, Southampton have maintained their automatic promotion claims with nerve-wracking back-to-back wins. A dramatic and vital 99th minute Flynn Downes winner was needed to see off Watford at St Mary’s on Saturday.

It keeps Southampton seven points behind second place Leicester City with five games left to play. Saints do have the ‘safety’ net of the play-offs to fall back on, but they will still be going all guns blazing for those top-two automatic spots, especially with other sides seemingly crumbling under the pressure.

Southampton’s away form has been shaky with just two wins in their past six in all competitions, but they are unbeaten in their last four at St Mary’s, winning three and drawing one of those games.

While the nerves definitely get frayed on the south coast, Saints fans never witness a dull encounter; both teams have scored in the past seven matches at St Mary’s, with an average of 4.28 match goals scored during that period. Saints scored an average of 2.42 goals themselves in those seven games.

Southampton sit top of the average match goals scored standings in the Championship with 3.29 netted per game this season. They also have the highest expected goals (xG) tally of 1.88 and the highest percentage of games (68%) where both teams have scored.

Preston North End

Preston’s recent inconsistency has dented their play-off ambitions. Saturday’s home defeat against play-off rivals Norwich means Ryan Lowe’s Lilywhites have picked up just eleven points from their previous eight league encounters (3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats). They’ve bagged on average 1.4 points per game at home during that run and 1.33 points per game on the road. North End now find themselves in tenth spot, eight points off the play-offs with just four games remaining.

Goalscoring has proved Preston’s downfall in their most recent encounters. They’ve netted just four goals in their last four starts and all those came in last Tuesday’s dramatic 4-1 home win against Huddersfield. Preston sit second-bottom of the Championship’s xG rankings with a tally of just 0.89. Only the league’s whipping boys, Rotherham United, have a worse figure (0.78).

Prediction

The reverse fixture between Southampton and Preston at Deepdale finished 2-2 back in October. A late injury-time Ched Evans’ own goal gifting a vital point to a relieved Saints outfit. Preston were in the top-4 at the time though after a strong start to the season where they went 8 games unbeaten.

There may be some nervy moments on Tuesday night as has become the norm at St Mary’s, but I can’t see anything but a Southampton win. Saints haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league at home since beating Sheff Wed 4-0 in January though. That run includes conceding 2+ goals against teams in the bottom half of the table (Watford, Millwall & Huddersfield).

So, although Preston have struggled in front of goal recently, I can still see them nicking at least one, albeit in defeat.

OddsNow's Pick: Southampton to win & BTTS (19/10 @ William Hill)

 

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