Gab Sutton weekly: Analysis and a 12/1 fancy in Championship play-off race

Written by: Gab Sutton

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a close look at the respective run-ins of five Championship play-off contenders and gives his opinion on which teams will force their way into the top six.

Championship 2024-25 play-off race – analysis and betting tips

Going to the wire

One of the great things about the 2024-25 EFL season is that all three aspects of the table – in each of the three leagues – are still to be decided.

Even the ones that look clearer than others, like the Championship’s automatic promotion race and the League Two dogfight, will either be decided, or blown wide open again, this Easter weekend by games between teams either side of the dotted line.

So, there’s still plenty to look forward to as we head into this four-day football feast. And perhaps most intriguing of all is the Championship play-off scramble.

Mathematically speaking, there are nine teams vying for the two remaining spots to join Sunderland, and probably Sheffield United in the post-season, but realistically we can trim it down to five – Bristol City, Coventry, West Brom, Middlesbrough and Millwall.

The former two have the points advantage right now, four and three ahead of the latter trio, who are all tied on 60 just outside the dotted line.

Big boys playing catch-up on Robins and Cov

For much of the season, we would have expected West Brom and Middlesbrough to enter the business end in the box seat, but instead chronic inconsistency under Tony Mowbray and streakiness under Michael Carrick respectively, means both are playing catch-up.

Meanwhile, Bristol City spent 22 gameweeks of the season from October to February between sat between eighth and 12th, but a run of one defeat in 11 has propelled the Severnsides into the coveted spots – even though they’d only strung back-to-back wins together once in the first six months of the campaign.

As much as Liam Manning’s side have never hit a slump this season, and boast some quality in attacking midfielder Max Bird, they’re presence in the top six probably indicates a comparatively low bar – and the failings of the better teams to play to their full capability.

City do have a tough run-in, though, hosting Sunderland on Good Friday, then travelling to a Luton side scrapping for their lives on Easter Monday, before going to Elland Road on the penultimate weekend and then a final day hosting of Preston North End.

Play-off rivals Coventry, meanwhile, have the task of hosting two of their competitors for a top six berth in West Brom and Middlesbrough, on Good Friday and the final day respectively.

On the one hand, if the Sky Blues can win either of those, they then make it very difficult for those chasing sides to make up seven points – or six with a huge goal difference swing across the other three games.

Lose either, though, and the Albion and/or the Boro would only need to gain an extra point on them to get ahead.

The other challenge Frank Lampard’s men face is trips to Luton and Plymouth Argyle sides fighting for their lives, when they’d much rather be facing anyone between Blackburn and PNE in the table.

What’s in their favour, despite three defeats in six amid a tough run of fixtures, is performance levels. The Sky Blues can take encouragement from their showing at Hull in midweek, conceding a late equaliser to draw 1-1 in a game in which they were categorically the better team.

With Matt Grimes dictating the tempo in midfield, Jack Rudoni making aggressive, third-man runs and Haji Wright giving them a real cutting edge in the final third, Cov pose a serious threat.

Don't rule out lurking Lions

In terms of the fixtures, though, Millwall arguably have it easiest.

They face three midtable sides in Blackburn, Norwich and Swansea, the latter two at home, before a final day trip to Burnley who are likely to have been promoted by then – and may even know whether the title is going to themselves or to Leeds.

With that in mind, it’s highly plausible that the Lions can accrue seven points from their next three games, and then win at Turf Moor if they really needed to on the final day.

That would get them to 70 points, which might just be enough, because Coventry matching or bettering that tally would require them taking points off West Brom and/or Middlesbrough, while six points could be a stretch for Bristol City if they lose at Leeds.

We tipped Millwall for a top six finish at 80/1 a few weeks ago. If you didn’t follow us in then, well firstly, shame on you. But secondly, you can still get them at 12s with Spreadex.

For a team that’s three points off the spots with four to play – have taken more points in the last three months than anyone in the league bar the top two - and has arguably the most favourable run of fixtures of the lot, 12/1 looks great value.

Gab Sutton's best bet for a Championship top-six finish

Millwall to finish in the Championship's top six - 12/1 (Spreadex)

Meet the Author

Gab Sutton


Football columnist

Gab Sutton is an acclaimed EFL pundit whose award-winning contributions have graced esteemed platforms such as The Sack Race, BetVictor, and The Football Lab in years gone by.

In September 2024, OddsNow.com swooped for Gab's services to give our readers unprecedented insight into the EFL on a weekly basis — and hopefully identify a few value bets along the way.

Gab is also a broadcast regular, hosting the EFL Debate show on Twitter and serving as a pundit on BBC Squad Goals, so it was a no-brainer to also sign him up for a YouTube show.

You can catch the EFL Betting Show with Gab and Matt Hill every Friday on the Odds Now YouTube channel.

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