Gab Sutton weekly: Why Millwall are a speculative bet for the top six at 80/1

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) explains why Millwall might be worth an outside poke to finish among the Championship play-off spots.

Millwall have taken 11 points from their last six games, averaging 1.83 points per game (PPG) in that period.

If the Lions replicate that return over the final 13 games, under the newly appointed Alex Neil, they’ll land on 66 points - just one fewer that current PPG projections say is the number required to finish in the top six.

None of their remaining six home league games come against top six opposition, so there’s a huge opportunity for the South Bermondsey outfit to make the Den a fortress in the final quarter of the campaign.

And, while the away fixtures look more daunting on paper, the final day trip to Burnley could be played with the Clarets having either already secured automatic promotion, or having missed out.

Recent results under new boss Alex Neil could leave room for optimism at The Den. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Lions to capitalise on dwindling sides above them

The Londoners boast one of the Championship’s form strikers in Mihailo Ivanović, who has established a nice synergy with Raees Bangura-Williams.

Meanwhile, a more youth-oriented recruitment policy under the guidance of James Berylson and Steve Gallen seems to have reinvigorated the squad, with January recruits Tristan Crama, Luke Cundle and Camiel Neghli all making an impact.

There would be no reason to back Millwall speculatively if there were no signs of weakness higher up in the Play-Off scramble, but that’s not the case.

West Brom have got weaker since Carlos Corberan left for Valencia, and Blackburn may do likewise following John Eustace’s departure for Derby, despite some good work from David Lowe in the interim period.

Coventry are in fine form right now, winning six of their last seven, but they’ve found themselves on the right side of tight games that could just as easily have gone the other way.

Below that, there’s Bristol City, who aren’t a hugely inspiring side, and would probably be midtable if it wasn’t for the collapse from Middlesbrough and Watford.

Boro have the highest ceiling of all the Play-Off candidates but they don’t do the basics well enough and are therefore chronically inconsistent, while Tom Cleverley’s great work at Vicarage Road has been undermined by the owners.

Then, there’s Norwich, who are comfortably a top six side when they’ve got their best XI fit and available, but that’s not been the case all season.

Millwall's market depreciation

With all that in mind, the stars may align for a midtable side like QPR, Millwall and PNE to force themselves into the reckoning at a late stage.

It wouldn’t even take a crazy winning run for that to happen: if Neil’s side average two PPG between now and the end of the season, they’ll get to 68 points which might be enough – and the chances of that happening looks greater than the implied probability of 1.2% that Betfair’s 80/1 quotes imply.

Plus, Millwall boast two of the best centre-backs in the Championship in Japhet Tanganga and Jake Cooper, meaning often they might only need one goal to win games.

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