Betting overview of Europe's top five football leagues

Written by: Brad Walker

Attention returns to club football following the international break, but how are each of Europe's top five leagues shaping up ahead of the season's run-in?

We tasked our man Brad Walker (@brad_TWalker) with running through each of the key markets and picking out where the value lies.

English Premier League

It's fair to say matters are looking pretty settled at both ends of the Premier League table, but eyes remain fixated to see who will land a spot in the top four. 

Only five points separate fourth and tenth so, including third-placed Nottingham Forest, there are still eight teams vying to occupy the final two spots and secure a place in next season's Champions League. 

Forest's recent return to form with back-to-back victories has strengthened their cause, leaving them five points clear of fourth and six clear of fifth.

The results have seen them shorten considerably in the top four market. Nuno's men were available at odds-against prices in the first two weeks of March but now come in at a best price of 7/10 to play Champions League football next season. 

And despite a disappointing campaign by their own high standards, champions Manchester City also come in below the even mark across the board to finish among the top four. This comes despite the fact Pep Guardiola's men currently find themselves in fifth position. 

Chelsea started the season brilliantly but have been faltering since December and now sit at 11/8 to secure Champions League football in Enzo Maresca's maiden season in charge. 

Four losses in their last seven have also dealt hammer blows to Newcastle's chances, leaving the Magpies as 9/4 outsiders with nine matches remaining. 

La Liga

Unlike in England, the race for the title is still very much on in Spain as the country's 'big three' continue to battle it out ahead of the final stretch. 

Hansi Flick's Barcelona currently lead La Liga ahead of bitter rivals Real Madrid due to their superior head to head record after both find themselves with 60 points to their name. The Catalans do have an extra game to play though, which perhaps explains why 'Barca' currently sit as 3/5 favourites to win a 28th Spanish first-division title. 

Current champions Real are distant second favourites at 5/2, while their city rivals Atletico Madrid, who trail the top two by four points, are distant outsiders at a best price of 16/1. 

The La Liga winner isn't the only key market to settle in Spain's top-flight, either. While bottom-placed Real Valladolid look destined to drop down to the second tier, sitting at a skinny 1/100 to go down, eyes remain peeled to see which two clubs will be joining them in La Liga 2. 

Nineteenth-placed Las Palmas' aren't much stronger according to the bookies. Diego Martinez' men are only two points adrift of safety but still sit at an odds-on 8/15 to return to La Liga 2 after failing to win any of their last 10 league matches. 

Only one point separate the next four sides, though the current market layout suggests one of two teams are a cert to find themselves among the dreaded drop zone. Leganes (18th) have picked up just three wins in their previous 15 during their first season back in the top-flight and are teetering above the even money mark (11/10) to suffer immediate relegation back down. 

And while Espanyol currently find themselves in 15th, Manolo Gonzalez' side are only a point above the bottom three and still have six of the top ten sides to play. This perhaps explains why, despite their higher position, the Catalans still sit at a narrow 13/8 to go down this term.

Alaves and Valencia, who are both currently a point below Espanyol by a point, are still unfancied for the drop and come in at wide 5/2 and 9/2 prices respectively. 

German Bundesliga

The title picture is looking pretty wrapped up in Germany as normal service set to resume with Bayern Munich being crowned champions. The Bavarians are currently six points clear at the summit and so come in for a very short 1/10 to reclaim the Bundesliga title they lost to second-placed Bayer Leverkusen last season.

The relegation picture is also settled, with bottom-three Holstein Kiel, Bochum and Heidenheim all coming in at odds-against prices. Of course, only two of those will be immediately condemned to life in Bundesliga. 2 next season, with the third facing-off against the third-placed side in the second division in a relegation play-off. 

Like in England then, the most intriguing market in Germany lies around the top four. Only three points separate third and sixth place, though the bookies agree its the sides currently occupying those spots who will secure Champions League football for next season. 

Frankfurt have dropped to fourth after losing three of their last five but still sit at 2/5 to finish among the top four, while Mainz, who are currently third, are also below the even money mark at 10/11.

RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg occupy the Europa and Europa Conference League places but a top four finish is looking a step too far, hence their current 9/4 and 7/2 pricing.

Italian Serie A

The Serie A table suggests a title race is very much still on the cards in Italy, though the bookies aren't so convinced. Only three points separate current leaders Inter Milan and second-placed Napoli, yet its the current champions Inter who are firm favourites to lift the Scudetto for a second consecutive season. 

Simone Inzaghi's side are available for a very narrow 2/5 with nine games remaining, compared to the wide 7/2 price on offer for Antonio Conte's Napoli outfit. 

While, at least in the bookies' eyes, the title race looks a foregone conclusion, the race for Champions League football is still split.

Third-placed Atalanta are looking a safe bet at 1/25 for a top four finish, while sleeping giants Juventus, who currently sit fifth, are also favourites at 8/13. They find themselves shorter than Vincenzo Italiano's Bologna, who are available at 5/1, despite the latter club currently sitting a point above them in the table.

    In terms of relegation, Monzo (20th) and Venezia (19th) are looking set to drop down at Serie B at 1/100 and 3/10, but questions remain over who the identity of the third relegated club. 17th-placed Parma currently sit at evens to suffer the drop, while Empoli, who are currently 18th, are on offer at an admittedly narrow 11/8 to go down. 

    French Ligue 1

    Unsurprisingly, PSG look to already have a seventh Ligue 1 title in eight years secured. Luis Enrique's men are currently 19 points clear of bitter rivals Marseille in second with eight matches remaining. 

    Still, a number of sides remain in heated competition for a spot in the Champions League next season. Just five points separate second-placed Marseille and Lille in sixth, leaving the top four race well-poised between now and May. 

    The aforementioned Marseille are looking a pretty safe bet to be among those places and are currently available at a skinny 1/14 with multiple sportsbooks. Third-placed Monaco, despite being level on points with Nice in fourth, also sit at a firm odds-on price of 1/4. This compares with the even money on offer for Franck Haise's Nice, who have only taken one point from their last two matches. 

    Lyon (fifth) and Lille (sixth) are currently on the periphery of the top four and remain narrow outsiders at 5/4 and 7/4 respectively.

    Meet the Author

    Brad Walker


    Sports Writer

    Brad has been working in the sports media sphere for almost three years now and is an ardent supporter of Liverpool FC, as well as a huge lover of boxing.

    Having recently graduated with a Sports Journalism MA from Liverpool John Moores University, Brad has conducted interviews with several stars of the fight game including Eddie Hearn, George Groves and Derek Chisora.

    When he’s not writing about sports, he’s usually watching back old tape of his favourite fighters Terence Crawford, Naoya Inoue and Marvin Hagler.

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