Focus On The Flat: Eyes down for another edition of Aidan O'Brien Guineas Bingo

Written by: Adam Smith

Horse racing's flat season rolls into action this weekend with the Lincoln meeting from Doncaster, meaning our resident flat racing expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) is chomping at the bit!

In the third edition of his brand new Focus On The Flat column here on OddsNow.com, Adam has a glance at the weekend action and more of those all-important Classic updates.

I play a lot of Aidan O’Brien bingo.

The master trainer dominates nearly every UK Group 1 ante post market and has done for years, bar the older horse sprint races. He’ll often have multiple and even double figure entries including the favourite, and reading between the lines of his comments, quotes and interviews gives clues as to which of them may run.

There is sometimes value to be had if acting quickly. For example, on Monday, the Ballydoyle supremo hosted a press morning where it became clear that his, at the time, shortest priced horses for both the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas were unlikely to make it to Newmarket.

The Lion In Winter, not seen since August, might not be ready for the colts classic and similar comments were given for the champion two year old Lake Victoria in relation to the fillies' Group 1.

Markets reacted rapdily and within half an hour both The Lion In Winter and Lake Victoria were overtaken in the market by stablemates.

As we have become very much accustomed to, Aidan knows how to sit on a fence and caveats comments on most horses with “Things could change, but that’s what we are thinking at the moment” – or, "We’ll make a decision in the next two weeks”. And not forgetting the old classic, “We’ll talk to the lads”.

So, The Lion And Winter and Lake Victoria have not been ruled out of the Newmarket classics completely, they are just unlikely at this stage. Fair enough.

More questions than answers

These updates leave me with two questions.

Firstly, I speculated that O’Brien has had his fingers burnt in the last two 2,000 Guineas renewals with a Derby type horse. Has that recent negative experience impacted his usual approach of sending a Derby horse to the Guineas?

Both Auguste Rodin in 2023 and City Of Troy in 2024 were bitterly disappointing in their respective tilts, finisihng 12th of 14 and ninth of 11 respectively, before bouncing back in the Derby. Is it more prudent for the number one Ballydoyle Derby horse to swerve the 2,000 Guineas entirely? Possibly.

We may be witnessing a change in method before our eyes. The Lion In Winter isn’t injured. He’s not had a setback in the off-season – he’s just not being fully wound up and pointed at the Guineas in early May. That’s how I read it, anyway

Secondly, are new market principles Expanded and Twain actually that good? Or is the market simply getting carried away with them appearing to become O’Brien’s main hopes for English and Irish Guineas?

They might well be shortening by default with The Lion In Winter not going. The truth is we do not know how good The Lion In Winter, Expanded and Twain are, as they all only raced twice in their juvenile campaigns for differing reasons.

The Lion In Winter had slight injury hiccups that prevented him running in the end of season Group 1s. Twain won a French soft ground Group 1 in October just eight days after making his debut. Expanded did similar by finishing second in the Dewhurst, having debuted just seven days earlier.

They could all be very good, but we haven’t seen enough of them as two year olds to be sure.

A deep-looking renewal

As always, there will likely be defections between now and the first Saturday in May. Lets hope not. But the 2,000 Guineas looks a good renewal to me at this stage.

Godolphin pair Shadow Of Light and Ancient Truth finished one place ahead and one place behind Expanded in the Dewhurst – making the former a two-time Group 1 winner in the process. And Charlie Appleby also has Ruling Court (form behind The Lion In Winter at York), who showed his talents in a recent easy Meydan win.

Opera Ballo has been bang impressive in two all weather starts in the winter months, but might not be aimed at the Guineas. Then there is also Scorthy Champ, who won the Group 1 National Stakes in September.

As usual, we also have some less exposed others, including Cosmic Year – who has been backed on Tuesday but has only had one start to date, when winning a Sandown novice race in cracking style in mid September.

It was a nice debut, but enough to be 12/1 for a 2,000 Guineas? I think not. That just evidences the open nature to this year’s renewal.

A final point, reverting back to where we started with the AOB bingo. Expanded might be showing on your odds comparison website as favourite for the English Guineas, but it was suggested in O’Brien’s usual non-committal manner that it might be Twain for Newmarket and Expanded for the Curragh.

As such, Twain is your current fav on the exchange and Expanded any price you like for a trip to England in early May.

There is much to look forward to.

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