Chelsea vs Burnley: Betting Odds & Prediction

The Premier League resumes for the final stretch as Chelsea face Burnley this Saturday.

Both sides will be looking to pick up where they left off after winning their last games before the international break. Kick-off is set for 3pm at Stamford Bridge.

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Chelsea

The Blues have been wildly inconsistent all season, but are looking to build some positive momentum having gone unbeaten in their past four league games and advancing to the FA Cup semi-finals. Their 3-2 win at home to Newcastle United left them eleventh on 39 points, but European football is not out of the question if they put together a good run of form. They lie just five points behind West Ham in sixth with two games in hand.

Chelsea’s home form has improved of late, winning four of their last five, but anyone watching their cup quarter-final against Leicester will have seen that the crowd is never far from turning and Burnley will look to take advantage of that. Chelsea have kept only three clean sheets from thirteen games in the league at home this season, with an average of 3.31 total goals per game in these fixtures, including eleven in their last two.

Without a doubt the light of Chelsea’s season is Cole Palmer, who seems to have the ability to block out the chaos that regularly surrounds him and has the skill and temperament of a star in the making. He has eleven goals and eight assists this season, with only four players having more goal involvements in the league. The forward has scored in each of his last three home league games.

Burnley

Vincent Kompany’s side picked up a vital three points last time out by winning 2-1 at home to Brentford, a result that ended a run of ten league games without a win. The Clarets remain 19th in the table, but that win combined with Nottingham Forest’s four-point deduction for breaking financial rules, means Burnley are now just five points from safety and have renewed hope in their fight against relegation.

In their previous away match Burnley drew 2-2 at West Ham having led 2-0, and despite winning just twice on the road this season they have scored in ten of their fourteen away games. They will, however, be without on-loan striker David Datro Fofana, who has scored in back-to-back fixtures, as he is ineligible to face his parent club Chelsea. Burnley average one goal per away game, with 64% of these games having over 2.5 total goals.

The Clarets switched goalkeepers for the first time this season against Brentford, with Championship-winning keeper Arijanet Muric coming in for the struggling James Trafford, and it will be interesting to see if he continues, as he offered a greater presence in goal and claiming crosses. Burnley have the second worst defensive record in the league, conceding 2.2 goals per game, and he may be the figure of solidity that can install confidence in this back line. 

Prediction

With this version of Chelsea there is no guarantee, but this is a fixture they should be winning. Their recent home form has been good and Burnley have been poor on the road all season. However, this could be a nervy game for the home faithful as Burnley can keep the ball for long periods and are coming off the back of two decent results. 

Burnley tend to score on the road despite their poor winning record, while Chelsea's home matches have been high-scoring throughout this campaign. Burnley have also shipped three or more in 43% of matches on the road, while Chelsea have found the net at least twice in 64% of their games at Stamford Bridge.

While there's little value in backing the home side on the moneyline, OddsNow expect more goals in West London this weekend. 

OddsNow's Pick: Chelsea to win with BTTS (17/10 @ Boyle Sports); Over 3.5+ goals scored (5/4 @ PaddyPower)