Liverpool vs Brighton: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Second-placed Liverpool host Brighton at Anfield on Sunday afternoon in a hugely significant match in the Premier League title race.
Brighton are unbeaten against the Reds in their last four games in all competitions, with the reverse fixture ending in a 2-2 draw earlier in the season.
As the season enters the final stretch, the title race is all to play for, with one point separating Arsenal in first and Man City in third, with both of these two sides facing-off at the Etihad later on in the day. Kick-off is set for 2pm UK time at Anfield.
Recent Form
Liverpool
Liverpool's home record in the Premier League is impeccable, having last lost a Premier League match at Anfield in October 2022. The Reds have the best home record in the league, gaining 2.57 points per game at home, only dropping points to Man United, Man City, and Arsenal at Anfield.
Despite having by far the highest home expected goals (xG) tally of any team in the league at 2.56, Klopp’s men have still managed to overperform offensively, scoring 2.71 home goals per game. Their defensive statistics are equally impressive, conceding 0.86 goals per home game from an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.05.
This form is even more impressive considering Liverpool’s growing injury list. Following Andy Robertson's injury on international duty for Scotland during the most recent internationals, their injury list now includes nine first-team players, including key men Trent Alexander Arnold, Alisson, and Diogo Jota. Darwin Nunez is a doubt for Sunday's game following news of a hamstring issue.
However, Mo Salah is back and fit for Liverpool, having scored or assisted 24 Premier League goals this season, a rate of 1.19 goal contributions per game. He is especially dangerous at Anfield, having scored eleven of his 15 Premier League goals at home this season (73%).
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Brighton
The away side come into this game on the back of a 1-0 home win against Nottingham Forest prior to the international break, knowing a win at Anfield could propel them into a potential European place. The Seagulls are only two points from West Ham with a game in hand and five points off sixth-placed Man United.
However, Brighton have been poor away from home this season, having only gained five points in their last eight away matches. Across the season, they have only won four times and gained 1.07 points per game on the road.
Roberto De Zerbi’s men haven’t struggled with scoring away from home, scoring 1.57 goals on their travels from an xG of 1.52. However, their poor away form has been due to their considerable defensive underperformance, conceding two goals a game from an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.42.
Similarly to Liverpool, Brighton are without many key players, including Kaoru Mitoma, top scorer Joao Pedro, ex-Liverpool man James Milner, and Solly March. However, Pascal Gross, who has ten assists in the Premier League this season, is fully fit.
Prediction
Despite Brighton’s tremendous form against Liverpool, they haven't looked as impressive and consistent as last season. Only six sides have conceded more away league goals than the Seagulls this season.
Although the home side are missing key players, Liverpool’s squad players have repeatedly shown their worth throughout the season, and with the added quality of a fully fit Mo Salah, they could overwhelm Brighton.
However, Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last six league games, and both teams have scored in 64% of matches at Anfield this season. Expect plenty of goal-mouth action on Merseyside.