Tottenham Hotspur vs Luton Town: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Tottenham Hotspur host Luton Town on Saturday afternoon as both sides look to progress at both ends of the Premier League table.
The home side currently sit fifth and are just three points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa in the Champions League places. Three points for Luton could bolster their survival hopes, with them perched just one point above the relegation zone in 17th. Kick-off is set for 3pm UK time at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
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Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs ran out narrow 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture earlier this season, despite seeing midfielder Yves Bissouma sent off on the stroke of half-time. Ange Postecoglou's side have struggled for consistency in the second half of the season, demonstrated no better than their two recent outings. A rampant 4-0 victory away at Villa was followed by a 3-0 loss at Fulham.
Tottenham's recent home form makes for better reading, though. They've won four of their last five on home turf, the only blemish being a 2-1 defeat to Wolves in February. Overall, they've averaged 2.14 points per game at home this season (W10, L4) heading into the Luton clash.
One thing that Tottenham have not struggled with this season is finding the back of the net. They have converted 59 times this season, the most they’ve ever scored at this stage in their Premier League history. They have scored in 100% of their home games in the league this term, averaging an expected goal (xG) tally of 2.06, which they have achieved, netting 2.07 goals per game.
Postecoglou’s side have also stood firm on the defensive front, especially on home soil. They average an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 2.06 yet concede only 1.36 per match. Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in only 14% of games played at home in the league, though.
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Luton Town
Luton head into the clash in poor form, having drawn two and lost three in their last five outings. They played out a 1-1 draw with relegation rivals Nottingham Forest last time out, and find themselves one point above Forest in the relegation zone.
Rob Edwards' side have found wins hard to come by in their first ever season in the top-flight, and have taken three points in only 17% of their games so far. They've also fared slightly worse on the road, averaging 0.71 points per game compared to 0.8 on home turf. Luton haven't recorded an away victory since their 3-2 win over relegation-bound Sheffield United in December.
Despite their poor form, Luton have only failed to score in 14% of league games this season, and have scored an average of 1.43 goals per game away from home, exceeding their xG tally of 0.94.
They have struggled in defensive columns, though. Luton are yet to record a clean sheet on the road, and have conceded an average of 2.43 goals per game, compared to an xGA tally of 2.01.
Prediction
Spurs need a win if they are to keep pace with Villa and achieve a top-four finish this season, even though fifth-place could also lead to Champions League qualification. Luton would no doubt snatch your hand off for a point at the offset, but their record on the road doesn't bode well for the away side.
Tottenham have scored at least two goals in 71% of their home matches so far, and have netted three in 28%. Goals at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have also averaged 3.43 total goals this campaign. Not only are Luton yet to keep a clean sheet, but they've conceded at least two in 64% of away matches. 50% have seen them ship three or more.
Both sides also tend to find the back of the net, suggesting plenty of goalscoring action lies in wait this weekend.