Bournemouth vs Brighton: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Bournemouth host Brighton & Hove Albion in Sunday’s South Coast derby, with both sides safely stationed in mid-table. Kick-off at the Vitality Stadium is at 2pm UK time.
A Milos Kerkez own goal and Kaoru Mitoma brace earned Brighton a 3-1 win in September’s reverse fixture, after Dominic Solanke had put the visitors in front.
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Bournemouth
Bournemouth enter the gameweek in the lofty position of 10th, boosted by their first win in four outings in midweek, at Wolves. Antoine Semenyo scored the only goal in the first half to leapfrog both their hosts and this weekend’s visitors in the table. The Cherries created a host of chances to extend their lead but then had to hang on, with two goals in their own net chalked off by VAR and Kerkez sent off late on. The full back’s three-match suspension begins with Sunday’s penultimate home game.
Bournemouth have collected 45 points (12 wins, 9 draws, 13 defeats) at an average of 1.32 points per game. Andoni Iraola’s side, who lagged 12 points behind their visitors after their early-season meeting, have been streaky all season, with long unbeaten runs punctuated by strings of poor results. Bournemouth have a leaky defence; their rate of 1.76 per game conceded is the joint fourth-worst record in the division. They have scored 1.44 goals per match at the right end.
In home league fixtures, Bournemouth have collected 24 points (6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats) at an average of 1.41 points per match. They score at a rate of 1.35 goals per match at the Vitality, from an expected goals figure of 1.53, with 1.53 per game against (xGA 1.4).
Both teams have scored (BTTS) in 52.9% of Bournemouth’s matches in front of their own fans—only Everton and Fulham have a lower rate.
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Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton begin the gameweek in 11th position, a point behind their hosts but still with a game in hand, following Thursday’s 4-0 home defeat to Manchester City. A Kevin de Bruyne strike and a Phil Foden brace put the champions 3-0 up at the break, before Julian Alvarez added the fourth.
Roberto de Zerbi’s side have amassed 44 points (11 wins, 11 draws, 11 defeats) at a rate of 1.33 points per game, but are on a winless run of five matches since March 10.
The Seagulls have scored 52 goals at a rate of 1.58 per match. However, their poor form has coincided with goals drying up; they have netted just four times in their last eight matches and have scored more than one goal in only three of their last 18. Following their comprehensive midweek defeat, Albion have conceded 54 times at an average of 1.64 per game.
Away from the Amex, Brighton have earned 17 points (4 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats) at 1 point per game. Their only win in 11 away outings since November’s victory at Nottingham Forest was a 5-0 thumping of the league’s bottom side Sheffield United. They score 1.41 goals per road match from an expected goals figure of 1.57, and their 1.82 goals conceded per away game is well over their xGA of 1.44.
Remarkably, neither side kept a clean sheet in any of the Seasiders’ first 16 matches up to December 9 whereas, in their last 14 matches, nine have seen shutouts for either or both teams.