Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan: Betting Odds & Prediction

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Written by: Bradley Walker

Atletico Madrid host Italian champions Inter Milan for the second-leg of their Champions League round-of-sixteen tie on Wednesday evening. 

Inter emerged with a 1-0 victory in the first leg courtesy of a Marko Arnautovic strike in the 79th minute. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Civitas Metropolitan Stadium. 

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Atletico Madrid

The home side head into the match on the back of a disappointing 2-0 loss at Cadiz in La Liga, leaving them in fourth position. The defeat was Atletico's fifth in their last eight matches in all competitions. 

Madrid's home form in the league has been near perfect so far, with the Spaniards averaging 2.86 points per game. They have won 13 of their 14 matches on home soil, with the only blemish being a 3-3 draw with Getafe in December. Diego Simeone's side have scored 34 goals at home in the league while only conceding 13 in the process. 

They are also exceeding their expected goal tally (1.69 at home), averaging 2.43 goals per match in the Spanish capital. Their defence has been equally impressive; despite an xGA of 1.31, Madrid have let in just 0.93 goals per home match so far. Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 29% of home matches during this campaign.  

Atletico's scoring form in Europe is even more eye-opening. In just seven games, Simeone's side have scored 17 goals (2.43 per match), while conceding seven (exactly one goal a game). They have also kept two clean sheets so far. The 2014 and 2016 finalists finished top of Group E by four points, ahead of Lazio, Feyenoord and Celtic.

If Atletico's home form is anything to go by, a high-scoring game can be expected in the second leg, with an average of 3.36 match goals scored at the Civitas Metropolitan Stadium in La Liga this season.  

Inter Milan

A 1-0 away victory at Bologna secured a thirteenth consecutive victory for the Serie A leaders. Inter now sit 16 points clear of second-placed AC Milan in the Italian top-flight. The Italians are no doubt the team in-form heading into the second leg in Spain.  

Like Atletico at home, Inter have been imperious on the road this season, averaging 2.71 points per match in Serie A (W12, D2, L0). They've managed to score 34 goals in those 14 games, while conceding just six in the process. 

Inter are also exceeding their expected goal tally on their travels. Despite averaging an xG of 1.57 goals per away game, they've scored 2.43 so far. Their defensive record is even more impressive; with an xGA of 1.18 goal per game balancing against an average of 0.43 goals conceded away from home.  

The Italians have been more conservative than their Spanish counterparts in Europe, averaging 1.29 goals in their seven games so far, but arguably faced a tougher group than Atletico. Inter finished second in Group D, and were level on points with group leaders Real Sociedad, ahead of Benfica and RB Salzburg. 

Nevertheless, Inter have still fared much better in the defensive column, conceding 0.72 goals a game in the Champions League this season. 

Prediction

As noted above, the away side are one of Europe's most in-form teams and present a formidable task for Atletico if they are to proceed to the quarter-finals. A team often synonymous with being difficult to break down, it is now the Spanish side who must battle through the defensive stalwarts of Italy. Simeone and co. will no doubt be boosted by the return of forward Antonie Griezmann, who has netted 18 goals this season. 

Inter Milan are on a roll however, and it's hard to see them forfeiting their 1-0 advantage from the first leg. The Italians come in at 14/9 to win on the night with vBet, which is a line difficult to ignore given the results both sides have conjured in recent weeks. 

Both sides are also averaging over 9.5 corners in their respective leagues so far this season, and with both sides chasing a spot in the QFs, OddsNow expect plenty of set-piece action in Madrid. 

OddsNow's Pick: Inter Milan to win on the night (14/9 @ vBet); Over 10.5 corners (11/8 @ Sky Bet)

 

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