Arsenal vs Porto: Betting Odds & Prediction

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Written by: Bradley Walker

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal return to North London with hopes of overturning a 1-0 away deficit against Porto in the Champions League on Tuesday. 

The Portuguese side won the Round-of-16 First Leg 1-0 but face a daunting task against an in-form Arsenal side in the English capital. Kick-off is set for 8pm local time.

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Arsenal made it eight league victories in a row with a 2-1 home win against Brentford on Saturday. The win was enough to see Arteta's side move to the top of the Premier League after title rivals Liverpool and Manchester City drew the next day. In fact, the Porto defeat last month was only Arsenal's second of the calendar year so far in all competitions. 

The Gunners' home form has been exceptional. Unbeaten in 13 of their 14 home league games so far (W11, D2 & L1), Arsenal have averaged 2.5 points per game on home soil. They have also scored 36 goals across those matches while conceding just 13. 

Arsenal are also exceeding their expected goal tally. While they average a 2.06 xG at the Emirates this season, they have scored 2.57 per game so far.

Porto have hardly been pushovers on the road, though. Sergio Conceicao's side have averaged two points per game on the road in the Liga Portugal (W8, D2 & L3). The away side have scored 1.69 goals a game in away matches, compared to their xG of just 1.32.

The Portuguese outfit have averaged an xA of 1.03 per game away from home but have only conceded 0.92. It must however be noted that the quality of opposition faced in Portugal pales in comparison to the Arsenal strikeforce they face on Tuesday. 

Winger Bukayo Saka has been at the heart of most of Arsenal's success this season but the home side will also be buoyed by the likely return of Gabriel Martinelli on the opposing flank. The pair already have 24 goals between them in all competitions this season. 

Matches at the Emirates have averaged 3.5 goals exactly this year, with more goal action expected in a second leg as both teams chase a place in the quarter-finals.

One man who'll have a big say on the total goal tally for the game is Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya. The Spaniard sat out his side's 2-1 win over Brentford through ineligibility but is likely to return to the lineup on Tuesday. The Spaniard has averaged 2.36 shots faced per match so far, while making only 1.5 saves. 

Prediction

Arsenal enter the night strong favourites but I don't see any value on the moneyline (2/9 for a home win on the night). Both sides have shown a capability of finding the net this season and are exceeding their xG tally in their domestic leagues so far. Both teams to score comes in at 13/10 with Betfair. 

OddsNow's Pick: Both teams to score (13/10 @ Betfair)

 

 

 

 

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