Athletic Bilbao vs RCD Mallorca: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Athletic Bilbao look to capture their 24th Copa del Rey title when they collide with RCD Mallorca in Saturday's final.
Bilbao haven't won the competition since 1984, and have lost all six of the finals they've featured in since. Meanwhile, Mallorca have won the Copa del Rey once, that being in 2003. Saturday will be their fourth time appearing in the final of the competition.
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Athletic Bilbao
The Basque outfit have been near faultless in the Copa del Rey so far, scoring 18 goals while conceding just three in their seven matches. The run has seen Bilbao defeat Barcelona in the quarter-finals before securing an impressive 4-0 aggregate victory over Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals.
Bilbao have performed admirably in La Liga too, and currently sit fifth after 30 games, but their goalscoring exploits in the cup have far exceeded their output in the league. An already impressive 1.67 goals bagged per match in La Liga pales in comparison to their 2.57 scored in cup matches so far. They're also creating more chances in the cup, averaging an expected goal (xG) tally of 2.13 compared to 1.49 in league games.
Ernesto Valverde's side have also excelled in defensive quarters across all competitions. They've shipped just 0.93 goals per league match so far, but this is again bettered in cup fixtures, where they've conceded just 0.43 in their seven matches. Five have ended in a clean sheet.
Bilbao have also lost only one of their last five in all competitions, though the sole defeat came in their most recent outing, when they were beaten 2-0 at league leaders Real Madrid.
RCD Mallorca
Javier Augirre's men enter the final with just one loss in their last six and played out a 0-0 draw at Valencia last weekend.
They've also been in fine goalscoring form throughout their Copa del Rey campaign. 15 goals scored across their seven matches leaves them with an average of 2.14 per game, far exceeding their xG of 1.56. This comes in spite of their trouble finding the net in La Liga, where they've failed to score in 43% of matches this term.
However, despite conceding only 0.43 goals per game, they have made habit of presenting opportunities for opposition, with an average xGA of 1.48 across the seven games. Bilbao have been clinical in both their league and cup games this season, averaging a 16.5% conversion rate, and so Mallorca can ill-afford to present them with the same number of opportunities if they are to prevail this weekend.
Prediction
Mallorca deserve respect for reaching the final and head into the game with respectable wins over the likes of Girona and Real Sociedad under their belt. However, they rightly enter as firm underdogs against a well-drilled Bilbao side who have history in this competition, having already lifted the cup on 23 previous occasions.
The two sides have already met twice in the league this season. After their initial meeting finished in a 0-0 draw in September, Bilbao romped to a 4-0 home victory in February's reverse fixture.
While little value can be found in backing Bilbao on the moneyline, both side's matches leading up to the final have produced plenty of goals. Bilbao's cup games have averaged three goals in total, compared to Mallorca's 2.57. Expect more goalmouth action in this one.