LOSC Lille vs Olympique de Marseille: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Bradley Walker

Fourth-placed Lille host Marseille on Friday evening as the away side look to close the gap on their French counterparts. 

The home side come into the game unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions, while Marseille have lost their last three. 

Recent Form

Lille

Paulo Fonseca's side have been sublime in their home fixtures this season. Lille have suffered just one defeat at the Stade Pierre Mauroy, averaging 2.31 points per game across their 13 matches. They've also won four of their last five on home turf, and boast the best home record in Ligue 1. 

An average of 1.92 goals scored per game exceeds their expected goal (xG) tally of 1.7, with Lille scoring in all of their 13 home games so far. They've scored two or more goals in 62% of those fixtures, and have been the first team to score in 77%. 

Their defensive record is also superb; they've conceded only seven goals at home so far at an average of 0.54 per game. This betters an already impressive expected goals against (xGA) tally of 0.99, and an outstanding 62% of home fixtures have ended in a clean sheet. 

Lille have conceded two or more goals in just 15% of their home games, and are yet to concede three or more this term. 

Marseille

This compares with Marseille's dismal form on the road so far. They've won just two of their 13 away games, leaving them with an average of just 0.77 points per game. Jean-Louis Gasset's men have also won just one of their previous five on their travels, with their last ending in a 2-0 defeat at Rennes.

They won't be buoyed by a 2-0 away loss at arch rivals Paris Saint-Germain last time out, despite the hosts having to play over half of the game with ten men. 

Marseille's main problems have been in defensive quarters; they've shipped an average of 1.62 goals per game in away fixtures, and are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. 38% of these games have seen them ship at least two goals. 

Their troubles at the back have heaped pressure on the forward line, who have been unable to keep up with the demand. Their average of 1.23 goals scored in away games isn't awful, but their failure to score in 46% of these fixtures has only exacerbated their defensive troubles. Lille's superb defensive record at home doesn't bode well for the away side heading into the fixture. 

Prediction

Anything other than a home victory would be a surprise given both side's respective records so far this season.

Lille have also impressed in front of goal on home turf, and come up against a Marseille side who have made habit of conceding on the road. The Stade Pierre Mauroy has averaged 2.46 total goals this season, while Marseille's away fixtures have seen an average of 2.85, suggesting plenty of goalscoring action lies in wait in this one. 

OddsNow's Pick: Lille to win (5/4 @ Betfair); Over 2.5+ goals scored (30/29 @ vbet)

 

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