Aston Villa vs Brentford: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Top-four chasing Aston Villa host Brentford at Villa Park on Saturday as the hosts look to bounce back from defeat midweek.
Unai Emery’s side will be looking to build momentum to finish the season strong with a push for a place in the Champions League next season. Brentford also travel to the Midlands looking to further distance themselves from the relegation zone. Kick-off is set for 3pm local time.
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Aston Villa
Emery's side have been very strong at Villa Park, winning 73% of their home fixtures while averaging 2.47 goals scored per game. They have failed to score in just 7% of home matches, and have bagged three or more in 53%. They have also opened the scoring in 67%. Striker Ollie Watkins remains a doubt though, possibly hindering Villa's attacking output.
At home Villa are more often the dominant side with an average expected goals (xG) of 1.59 compared to their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.81. They have lost three of their last five on home turf, though their most recent outing saw them secure a 2-0 victory over rivals Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend.
Goals conceded have been a concern of late, with Villa conceding ten in their last four home outings. They've kept a clean sheet in just 27% of home matches since the start of the campaign.
On to the weekend. ✊ pic.twitter.com/EroEu8Emll
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) April 4, 2024
Brentford
Brentford's away form has been a big concern and is a big reason why they are in danger of slipping into a relegation fight if they don't start winning soon. The away side have averaged just 0.67 points per away game, and have won only 20% of fixtures on the road this term. They have conceded an average of 1.67 goals in these games, compared to only 1.13 scored.
Brentford also tend to be on the back-foot, averaging an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.29 compared to an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.81. They will also be travelling to the side with the fourth-best home record in the league.
The Bees have scored two goals in 33% of away fixtures - the same percentage in which Villa have conceded two or more at home.
Prediction
Brentford have made habit of conceding on the road, and have conceded three or more in 27% of away matches so far. Coupled with Villa's tendency to score multiple goals at home (53% of their games at Villa Park have seen them score at least three), we expect more goals from the home side in this one, even with Watkins' possible absence.