Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Betting tips and analysis

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Brad Walker

The first meeting of two of last season's top four takes place on Saturday evening in what I will from now on refer to as the 'Unai Emery' derby.

Arsenal will surely have vengeance on their minds after Aston Villa's crushing 2-0 victory over them in April, but can they get one over on their former manager this weekend?

Odds Now's Brad Walker runs you through all the key details ahead of a mouthwatering contest at Villa Park.

Tale of the tape

Aston Villa

Unai Emery's men picked up where they left off last season, securing an impressive 2-1 victory away at West Ham last weekend courtesy of a 79th-minute strike from substitute Jhon Duran.

The hosts, I guess you could say, 'come undone' (nice little Duran Duran reference for you there) by a man they had reportedly lodged a bid for earlier in the summer, only to see the 20-year-old remain with the Midlands side ahead of the season-opener.

Some question whether Villa will be able to replicate their successes from 2023-24, particularly when having to contend with the pressures of Champions League football from next month onwards, but I refuse to see how a side glistening with this much quality won't remain a threat in-and-around those European places.

Their two victories over Arsenal last season will also be a source of confidence heading into the fixture. The 2-0 win at the Emirates in April played as vital a role in Arsenal finishing runners-up to Manchester City as it did in Villa's successful top-four berth.

Villa secured a Premier League double over Arsenal last term, including a damaging 2-0 win at the Emirates back in April. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Arsenal

The Gunners also hit the ground running on the opening weekend with a 2-0 home victory over Wolves. Goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka secured the first three points of a campaign many are tipping to culminate in the club winning their first league title since 2004.

It is true that there are no easy games in the Premier League, but a trip to Villa Park is always a fixture which conjures an added feeling of doubt over your team's prospects of winning.

The Gunners not only lost both of their meetings with Villa last season but they also failed to score across both of their encounters. I am among the sizeable crowd backing Arsenal to go one better and win the league this time around, but their lack of a goalscoring number nine remains a concern.

It was a weakness that was particularly evident in both matches against Villa last season, heaping pressure on the likes of Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz to step to the plate and avoid a similar fate this weekend.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Betting tips and predictions

Arsenal are strong 17/20 favourites to come out on top in this one, despite their poor showings against Emery's men in 2023-24.

The Gunners did boast the second-best away record in the Premier League last season, though - only champions Manchester City bettered the 42 points they picked up on the road.

It's also impossible to deny the upward trajectory Arsenal have been on over the last two seasons. They will take further confidence from the improvements from the last campaign, where they pushed Pep Guardiola's men to the final day before eventually coming up short.

Their clean sheet in the 2-0 win over Wolves last weekend also continued their impeccable defensive record from last term. During 2023-24, Arsenal conceded the fewest amount of goals (29) out of all Premier League sides.

However, while I'm confident they can right last season's wrongs and secure victory in Birmingham this weekend, I don't see them shutting Villa out completely over the 90 minutes.

Former Arsenal manager Unai Emery is now at the helm at Villa Park and steered the club to a top-four finish last season. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Sure, Arsenal limited Wolves to just 0.4 xG last weekend but anyone who's watched the highlights of that match is aware of the opportunities Arteta's men presented with sloppy play in-and-around their own penalty box.

A more clinical side could have easily forced an equaliser on that day at the Emirates and they prepare to face a Villa side who scored 48 of their 76 goals from last season on home turf. For the less mathematically inclined among us, me included, that accounts for a little over 63% of their total goalscoring output. Villa also failed to score in just one of their home fixtures in the league in 2023/24.

Ultimately, I expect Arsenal to further enhance their title-winning pedigree with three vital points this weekend, but not without being asked questions from a superb Villa side on Saturday.