Punters Panel: Royal Ascot special – ante post betting advice from our experts
Our Odds Now Punters Panel feature has gone down a storm in its early weeks – and here we have a very special edition for you, taking an ante post look towards Royal Ascot!
Ahead of a pulsating week of action next month, we've assembled five leading voices to tackle five key questions on the Royal meeting (N.B. - there were six, before Kyprios' retirement was confirmed on Tuesday AM!).
Introducing the Odds Now Horse Racing Punters Panel
Before we get stuck in, here’s a little bit more on the five men answering our key questions:
Adam Smith - A betting industry veteran, flat lover and one half of our Races Now double act.
Harry Fowler - Another of Odds Now’s regular racing contributors currently working in the industry.
Lee Jones - Racing trader at a leading bookmaker and well-respected judge in betting circles.
Dale Nicholls - Long-term friend of Races Now and all-weather lover.
Daniel Morgan - Editor of TheAnteposter.com
Now, onto the good stuff...
With the front four in the Lockinge covered by less than three lengths and all going to the Queen Anne, who do you think wins the Royal Ascot curtain raiser?
AS - The Lockinge left more questions than answers. I want to be with Diego Velazquez but his lack of run to this point worries me. So Notable Speech might be the best value given he will apparently come on for the run. More on that subject in my column.
HF - Rosallion is my idea of the winner at this stage. I’d be quite confident that we see the Lockinge third and fourth beat the first and second from that day. Rosallion was a winner at the Royal meeting last season and it was a good effort in the Lockinge after 11 months off the track.
LJ - Notable Speech should come on most from the Lockinge and is not reliant on the ground, unlike some of his opponents.
DN - Dancing Gemini at 5/1. They have really found the key with him this campaign, only touched off by a fantastic Oisin Murphy ride in the Lockinge, I would expect the Roger Teal mount to be bang there once again.
DM - Of the top quartet in the betting, only Dancing Gemini likes cut underfoot, so watch the weather. But the value is Lake Forest at 33/1. His tour de force Down Under has not yet been fully appreciated.
There's three weeks until the King Charles III and its currently 7/1 the field. What’s your idea of the winner?
AS - The Palace House and Temple Stakes have been below average renewals to say the very least. Imagine how far Believing would have won those races by? She's too big at 7/1.
HF - Mgheera is one I took a price on before her victory at Haydock. Looking at her form prior, she’d been running 90% of her races on a soft surface. Two races this season on quicker surfaces and with a Group 2 and 3 to her name, I think there is more to come from this mare.
LJ - Believing is going to love this stiff five furlongs and on what will be her last start (in foal to Frankel), she can bow out with the victory.
DN - Flora Of Bermuda was really unlucky at York. Only the best jockey on these shores was able to somehow prevent it from winning, galvanising his mount when looking beat. You will get a run for your money at the currently quoted 20/1.
DM - Mgheera has run two superb races since joining Ed Walker. She was doing all her best work at the end of the Temple Stakes, and we don't yet know this mare's ceiling. 14/1 appeals.
The third Group One of day one is the St James's Palace Stakes, where Field Of Gold is now a short price favourite following his Irish Guineas romp. Can he be stopped?
AS - Field Of Gold was good at the Curragh, no doubt. And with six of the top nine in the current betting almost certain not to run, there might not be a lot out there to beat the big grey.
HF - I personally would be somewhat worried about the ground. If it was rattling quick on the day, I think that would be a negative. All his runs this season are on officially good ground but it was certainly at its quickest for the English 2000 and I do think that was a factor. I’m going to side with Henri Matisse. The Aidan O’Brien camp will make sure it’s a race run to suit and I was very impressed with that French Guineas victory.
LJ - Jonquil was poorly positioned in the French Guineas and I have him coming out on top in the St James Palace.
DN - My favourite race of the week, even if I am still nursing burnt fingers from Maljoom a few years back. It would be nice to see a rematch between Ruling Court and Field Of Gold, with the latter being the preference after its Irish romp. The jockey booking will be of interest and may be the decisive factor whether he goes off odds-on or odds-against.
DM - Probably not, but unless even-money bets a few weeks out are your thing, wait for a decision on Jonquil. This race will cut up, so he’d be a solid each-way play at 10/1 on three-place terms. He was the best horse in the French 2000 Guineas on pace dynamics.
We saw a fantastic Tattersalls Gold Cup on Sunday with many heading the the Prince Of Wales next. Who takes your eye?
AS -Some hard luck stories and good-looking overall form comes from the Tattersalls Gold Cup. I'd like Economics to be a star but I'm still not sure what his ideal race conditions are. I'll be cheering him rather than betting him.
HF - Los Angeles is an absolute fighter who refuses to be passed. It looked for all the world that Anmaat was going to chin him in Ireland. I'm very excited about the rest of the season for this lad, up to a mile and a half after the Prince Of Wales.
LJ - I don’t think Economics is going to need the run and from what William Haggas has been saying, he will be near 100% for this. I expect him to win.
DN - Economics heads the market, despite bombing out a little on Champions Day. His attitude and grit in the Irish Champion Stakes may well have been the best we see of him. I think Anmaat appeals at the current quoted prices, despite Calandagan blowing the start in the said race. Anmaat finished in style once jumbo Jim got the gap.
DM - I like one under the radar here. Facteur Cheval, with solid course form, steps up to ten furlongs for the first time with top US-based jockey Flavien Prat booked to ride. Not much went right for him last time out in Dubai.
The Commonwealth Cup is a relatively new race for the three year old sprinters. Who do you fancy there?
AS - Shadow Of Light all the way for me, though Babouche will be a quality opponent. Also, Amo's Diablo Rojo ran a belter in the official trial and is of interest at a big price. There's loads priced shorter than him that simply will not run.
HF - I am going to side with Babouche for now. She bounced back from her season reappearance with a proper performance, putting Whistlejacket to the sword. It wouldn’t be a strong fancy at this stage as I think she's quite ground dependent. The more rain, the more chance Shadow Of Light has and the opposite for Babouche. I can’t really see him lining up in the St James’ Palace now with how strong that looks. They went slow in the Guineas and that helped him to see it out that day but I don’t believe the same would happen again on day one of Royal Ascot.
LJ - Shadow Of Light will just win this if he turns up and he will dominate this division this year.
DN - Babouche. And he will be favourite on the day. Sometimes it is best to keep it simple, he will run and he will be strongly fancied. Dive in.
DM - Big Mojo was unusually ridden cold from behind in the Sandy Lane, where he found trouble before finishing strongly. He looks each-way value at 25/1 but wait for the green light from Mick Appleby (also in King Charles III).