Focus On The Flat: Lacklustre Lockinge makes for puzzling Queen Anne
Resident racing expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) takes a closer look at the leading contenders for next month's curtain raiser at Royal Ascot – the Queen Anne.
Flat racing insight – Royal Ascot Queen Anne 2025 betting analysis
Lockkinge leaves mixed emotions
Mixed Emotions by Chase & Status is one of SD’s favourite tunes and it was very much a suitable theme song as I left Newbury on Lockinge day. I’d just tipped a 25/1 ante post winner in this very space but came away disappointed in what I saw in the race itself. Mixed emotions.
“It’s probably the best Lockinge in 50 years” proclaimed Richard Hannon in the Racing Post. That was a mild over exaggeration, albeit it did look a stella renewal on paper. Maybe 10 years, not 50! But it didn’t deliver and made me feel somewhat empty.
I was massively looking forward to Notable Speech and Rosallion locking horns as four-year-olds. We were told both were ripe and ready to go. Rosallion had had three racecourse gallops behind closed doors. Charlie Appleby said of his charge “we’ve been delighted with him. He’s ticked every box. We couldn’t be any happier with our horse.” Yet they both ran like horses that were not close to their best.
And purely on ratings, they needed to be near or at their best. Both ran to an RPR of 117, both had a peak RPR of 124 last year and the winner ran to 123 according to the Racing Post. The figures are more complicated as we are comparing three-year-olds to four-year-olds, but you get my drift.
Excuses, excuses
20/20 hindsight was in full use minutes after the race as Appleby said he was “delighted” and “got tired close home”. Hannon going with the line, “he’ll strip a lot fitter next time and take a lot of beating. I’m looking forward to Ascot.” So they were fit enough beforehand but not after? Which is it boys?
Is the flat season turning into its National Hunt cousin? Becoming too focused on one week in the calendar in mid June? It might well be.
Now I fully accept that match fitness comes through playing matches and ‘will come on for their first run’ might be the oldest cliché in the book. But this was more than that to my eye. This was trainers warming up Classic winners from the previous year in a bona fide Group One worth £226,840 to the winner with more than half an eye on Royal Ascot.
What is the problem with getting a horse fit and ready first time out for such an important race? What’s wrong with running in a race at a lower level to get match fit? There are perfectly good opportunities to do so. Dancing Gemini did, Lead Artist did.
The flat season might be extending at both ends with international opportunities increasing each year, but this is the Lockinge for goodness sake. Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Farhh, Olympic Glory, Night Of Thunder and Baaeed all won it on their first start of the year – three of them trained by someone called Richard Hannon. And whilst we are at it, Rosallion might be the most ground dependent Group One horse in Europe, so his window of fast ground opportunity is smaller than most.
Before we move on, it gets worse! “She’s working only satisfactorily and going through the motions at home. I’m hoping she runs a nice race but I’m very much looking towards the rest of the season with her. Royal Ascot will be the main plan.” Said Karl Burke about last year’s Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel. No wonder she went off 20/1...
Value lies away from leading quartet
So where does the Lockinge leave us with a view to the curtain raiser at Royal Ascot? The first four in the Lockinge are between 4/1 and 6/1 for the Queen Anne, all likely to run. I think the value lies away from those four Newbury runners. We simply might not have a superstar miler in Britain this year.
I first looked at Sardinian Warrior, who could well be the new kid on the block and won the official Queen Anne Trial at Ascot at the end of April – his first run on turf. Yet he ran over nine furlongs on his next start in the Prix d’Ispahan, finishing a much creditable second. Not the usual route taken to the Queen Anne.
Porta Fortuna returned as a four year old at the Curragh over the weekend with a smooth Group Two win, but all of her winning has come against how own sex. And the one time she tried against he boys, she was eighth of ten.
She’s on course for the Queen Anne but will need a career best for sure.
Then there’s Facteur Cheval who was given the worst ride of 2024 in last year’s Queen Anne and wants softer ground.
Diego Velazquez would be my idea of a bet at this stage. It took the Ballydoyle boys half a season to work out he is best at a mile last year and when dropped back to nine and eight furlongs he ran back-to-back career bests in Ireland.
Aidan O’Brien is on record as saying the Queen Anne is very much the plan, although the fact that this four-year-old by Frankel is yet to be seen so far this season is a worry and the difference between me having a one point or half point bet.
Smido’s ante post selection for the 2025 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot
0.5pt win - Diego Velazquez - 16/1 (general)
*Author’s note – SD’s actual favourite song is We Saw The New Year In In an Inn by John Shuttleworth. Not joking.*