Fowler on the Festival: Trials Day eye-catchers and a look to the DRF

There are six weeks to go before Cheltenham Festival gets underway and Odds Now have enlisted the help of national hunt enthusiast Harry Fowler to keep you abreast of all the key developments.

Catch Harry’s column every week between now and March to stay on top of the big stories and market moves from racing’s most anticipated meeting.

Favourites shine on Trials Day

All eyes on Trials Day were drawn to the International Hurdle, where it was all about one horse – Constitution Hill. He went off at an SP of 1/12 and going into the race 30lbs in hand, we all knew why that price felt about right.

It was as comfortable as expected, however he did keep things briefly interesting when barely getting off the ground at the last. The main takeaway was that he looks in good health and now we look forward to seeing what dares face him in March. 

The second race of the day was the Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle, where East India Dock was favourite and before the race, considered a 13/2 chance to land the real thing in March, given market leader Lulamba stole most of the market attention with his performance a week earlier.

James Owen’s charge went off an SP of 1/2 and put in another brilliant performance to beat French challenger Stencil by 10 Lengths – an effort which saw him cut into a 7/2 second favourite for the Triumph. 

In reality, what he’s done so far in most other years would have him favourite. Three runs over hurdles, clearly progressing with each one, course form, no obvious ground concerns and his last two victories having arrived in particularly commanding fashion. 

Whilst it isn’t a big price, I do think that 7/2 represents value. After all, he is against a horse that we have only seen once and is 11/8 favourite largely due to trainer comments and yard reputation.

The fourth race was the Cotswold Chase, which went the way of 4/5 favourite L’Homme Presse, though it looked a race with a few horses who had other handicap targets in mind.

Venetia Williams’ stable star got the job done, winning by ¾ of a length. He did look like he had the race in the bag after the last but drifting right on the run in certainly made it closer than Charlie Deutsch and connections would’ve hoped. 

That’s not to take anything away from Stage Star in second who ran a cracker on his first effort at the trip. Those following the horse may be made to wait until Aintree for a reappearance, however.

L'Homme Presse was nudged in from 25/1 to 20/1 for the Gold Cup and looks to have a good chance to make the places – especially if Fact To File switches to the Ryanair. I’m not sure I’d rush to back it though, with the price unlikely to get much shorter in the next few weeks.

The penultimate race of the day was the Cleeve Hurdle, a race to showcase the UK’s best operators in the Stayers Hurdle division. Crambo and Strong Leader were at the top of the market, yet both had question marks next to their name going into the race and failed to run up to their best form.

The Winner on the day was Gowel Road who was well backed into 5/2 joint favourite. Following on from that performance, he has moved into 25/1 for the Stayers, with some firms to as low as 14/1. In my opinion, that price is far too short and he has next to no chance come March.

Put it this way, Teahupoo will not be losing any sleep back in Ireland over any of the UK challengers and looks one of the bankers of the week at this stage.

Sadly for favourite lovers, multiples fell at the final hurdle. 

Losing the Pot

Potters Charm lined up in the last race of the day looking to boost Turners claims and went off 8/15 to justify his pre-race quote of 7/1 to land a big pot in March.

Sadly for connections, he was comfortably beaten eight and a half lengths by Sixmilebridge, who is subsequently into 16/1 from 40s for Festival glory in that aforementioned race.

The decision to run Potters Charm on Saturday was one that didn’t make any sense to me. 

After Aintree on Boxing Day, the trainer said that they would go straight to Cheltenham. That day was over a trip too short and the ground conditions were testing. Though he stuck on well to win, it looked a hard enough race and was his fourth run of the year. 

So, to run on Saturday and give this novice (in his first full season) his fifth outing before then going to the season’s main aim, you are asking for problems really. 

The trainer came out and said that they felt entries weren’t overly strong, which is why they changed plans and they are expecting much better come the Festival.

Plenty think this horse was just never good enough but for me, I think he had a great chance and now think that the Twiston-Davies team have cost themselves a chance at Cheltenham glory.

The market agrees, pushing his March quote out to 14/1 from 7/1.

Back in third in this race was Bill Joyce, beaten 12 lengths by the winner. This isn’t the form boost that The New Lion may have hoped for from that Challow Hurdle victory, The New Lion did do it easy that day but won’t be scaring the Irish challengers away.

Finally, two good performances from Naas to note in the famous Donnelly colours.

Dancing City  who won well second time over fences to win a grade three and has enhanced his Brown Advisory chances, now 9/2 from 7/1. 

The other was from Anzadam who won easily by 11 lengths as expected when 1/10 favourite, Willie Mullins did say there is a chance he misses the Champion Hurdle and goes to Aintree instead.

Horses to watch at the Dublin Racing Festival

Now we have seen what the UK horses have to offer over the last couple of weeks, this weekend will see attention switch over to the Dublin Racing Festival. 

It’s the final chance to see some of the best horses in Ireland prior to the Festival and though the fields are somewhat diluted compared to years gone by, there are still plenty of clues to be found.

Here are the horses I would suggest keeping a keen eye on in terms of Cheltenham markets based on how the fare at Leopardstown:

Saturday notebook horses

Final Demand (Turners 12/1 and Albert Bartlett 8/1)

Hello Neighbour (8/1 Triumph)

Saint Lucie (10/1 Triumph)

Majborough (4/1 Arkle)

Galopin Des Champs (4/5 Gold Cup)

Fact To File (4/1 Gold Cup and 4/1 Ryanair) – The way I see this is Galopin Des Champs will win Saturday and then he will be rerouted to the Ryanair. That could make the current 4/1 quote on offer look huge.

Kalypso’chance (7/1 Champion Bumper)

Sunday notebook horses

Ballyburn (7/2 Brown Advisory) – I think come 1:20pm on Sunday this 7/2 will not be around anymore. I think he will appreciate this step up in trip, show the classy performer he is and will be tough to beat come March. 

Kopek Des Bordes (14/1 Supreme and 10/1 Turners) – I expect to see him run well on Sunday and emerge as Willie Mullins’ Turners horse. It is always hard with the Mullins novice hurdlers to work out which horses will run in which race but the 10/1 for the Turners feels like a price worth taking.

Kaid d’Authie (14/1 for both Supreme and Turners)

Gaelic Warrior (3/1 Champion Chase)

Lossiemouth (7/4 Champion Hurdle and 3/1 Mares Hurdle)

State Man (10/1 Champion Hurdle)

Future Prospect (14/1 Champion Bumper)

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