World of Wagers: Turkish Delight

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

Offering up some telling nunbers and insight on a division lacking significant media coverage, reading this may just help you unearth a few obscure winners this season!

Once thought of as the retirement league of Europe, where big names on the decline would go for one last payday (and perhaps a new head of hair), the Turkish Super Lig has managed to improve its reputation in recent seasons and sits comfortably in the next tier down in terms of league strength from the traditional top five.

Whilst the results of Turkish teams in UEFA competitions this term has been mixed at best, and the failure of Basaksehir to even make it to the Conference League knockouts was more or less an aberration, the overall quality and crucially, competitiveness within the league seems to be very much on the rise.

As someone who’s main line of work now focuses heavily on the Super Lig, I’ve been impressed by several of the smaller teams, both in terms of playing style and recruitment.

With the arrivals this summer of Gabriel Sara, Victor Osimhen and Cher Ndour (the latter two albeit on loan) to the league, this felt like a watershed moment that players in their prime can still see Turkey as a viable option to further their career and improve as players.

All of this means there is plenty of value to be find on a weekly basis from top to bottom.

The arrival of the likes of Osimhen has reaffirmed the Super Lig's standing on the continent. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Leans - two sides to keep an eye on

One of the more recognised teams in the league thanks to semi regular European outings, Trabzonspor haven’t been at their best in 2024/25.

Currently sat in 10th, they do actually have a better goal difference than the three sides directly above them, and my own model, which encompasses raw results, underlying metrics and market moves, actually rates them as the sixth best team at the moment.

Including the cup, they’ve won three of their last four games to nil, and haven’t failed to score since 23rd September.

Key to this has been Simon Banza, with the DR Congo forward, signed from Braga in the summer, being at the heart of all that’s good about Trabzonspor.

I wouldn’t want to back against them challenging the European spots come the season’s end, particularly if experienced defenders Barisic and Savic can get (and stay) fit.

Rizespor are another side I just think have started to turn the tide in the last few weeks and could be poised to move up the table should some of those above them start to regress.

Their win over Eyupspor and hard fought point against Besiktas particularly impressed me, and whilst they don’t have any standout players (Sheffiend United loanee goalkeeper Ivo Grbic perhaps my pick of the bunch), their work and shape as a team means they tend to stay in the majority of games, rarely seeing a blowout loss.

Fades - two teams to bet against

Until their last two games, results hadn’t been all that bad for Kasimpasa.

3-0 and 5-0 losses have dented things a bit since, but warning signs have been lurking for a while in my opinion and I can only see that 12th place going one way.

I have them rated as the 16th best team at the moment, and they could be the ideal side to look to get against in some way over the coming weeks, as prices don’t look to be moving too much against them.

I mentioned my two leans need sides above them to start falling off the pace and of the four ‘lesser’ names in the top eight at the minute, it’s Gaziantep that to my eye seem the least sustainable.

Whilst forward David Okereke always catches the eye, the away form is so poor compared to how they play at home, and I’m not sure this extreme split has filtered through to their prices.

I make them the 10th best home side, but third worst away from home, so keep WHERE they are playing in mind before getting against them.

Best bets for the weekend

Samsunspor DNB vs Besiktas - 2.55 (PaddyPower/Betfair)

Whilst the majority of my betting decisions are driven primarily by the data, and my models back up my thoughts here, this is also a big gut feel from me.

I am rarely impressed by Besiktas, and not a lot has changed in spite of firing Giovanni van Bronckhorst.

Ciro Immobile’s fitness has been up and down, and the rest of their attack has yet to really click.

Add into that a Samsunspor side that are flying in third, with a superb away record and the underlying performances to back it up, and it’s too tempting not to take this draw no bet price.

Samsunspor have been steadily shortening in the 1X2 market, and I think this will go off much closer to 2.2/2.3 come kick-off.

Fenerbahce win to nil vs Adana Demirspor - 2.10 (PaddyPower/Betfair/Hills)

Fener are generally a tricky side to get right this term.

Jose Mourinho’s men can be scintillating at their best, and a complete turn off at worst. All that said, their record against the weaker sides is pretty strong overall, with enough clean sheet victories to make me want to take a punt on an odds against price here.

Throw in how woeful Adana Demirspor have been of late (aside from a miracle victory against… you guessed it Besiktas) and the Special One will be hammering his backline if they don’t return home with three points and the ball staying out of Dominik Livakovic’s net.

Mourinho's men have performed well against lower opposition sides this term. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Under 2.5 goals Basaksehir vs Rizespor - 1.95 (William Hill)

I do think Rizespor are a touch overpriced on the main 1X2 market here, but I wanted to find a different angle.

Like I said above, they tend to keep games close and crucially for this game, Basaksehir are highly likely to be missing their main man Krzysztof Piatek.

The Pole has 13 goals in 18 league games this term, with Joao Figuereido’s five the next best effort.

With Basaksehir’s inconsistency at the best of times, and Rizespor’s general toughness, I envisage a cagey game here, and a small play on 0-0 might even be worth a go.

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