Watford vs Leeds United: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Aled Edwards

Watford host Leeds United on Friday night, with the visitors looking to remain top of the Sky Bet Championship. 

The fixture will be interim Watford head coach Tom Cleverley’s first at home after the recent departure of Valerien Ismael. 

The Yorkshire club were victorious against the Hornets earlier this season, comfortably winning 3-0. Leeds United’s competition for the automatic promotion spots in Leicester City, Southampton and Ipswich Town all play earlier in the day. Kick-off is set for 8pm at Vicarage Road. 

Recent Form

Watford

The hosts won 1-0 away from home last time out against a struggling Birmingham City side, but have been in poor form at Vicarage Road, failing to win in their last six home matches. 

Over the course of the season, Watford’s record at home has been much weaker than on the road. From nineteen home matches, Watford have only taken an average of 1.11 points per game, winning only 26% of their matches in front home fans as opposed to 37% of their away games. 

Their poor record at home cannot be attributed to their chance creation, with the Hornets averaging an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.64 at home. They have slightly underperformed on this figure by netting an average of 1.53 goals per game, but find themselves on the scoresheet at home frequently, scoring in 84% of games. 

Defensively however, Watford have failed to impress this season. The Hornets have conceded 1.37 goals per home match this season, despite their expected goals against (xGA) tally sitting much lower at 1.08. They have only managed to keep a clean sheet in 26% of their matches both home and away. 

Leeds United

The visitors’ fine form has seen them overtake long-term league leaders Leicester City in the race for promotion to the Premier League. Leeds took maximum points from their last match with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Millwall at Elland Road. 

Over the course of the season, Leeds have failed to take their form from Elland Road away from home with them. However, this seems to be an issue that Daniel Farke may have rectified recently, with the Yorkshire giants unbeaten in six consecutive league games on the road, taking maximum points from five. 

Leeds have averaged an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.41 away from home this season which they have exceeded by netting an average of 1.53. They have however failed to score in 26% of their away matches in the Championship this season, but this statistic is rapidly improving with Farke’s side scoring in six consecutive away matches. 

The away side have also been solid defensively all season, despite the loss of a key player in Pascal Struijk due to a groin injury. Their record has been particularly impressive recently, with the Welsh centre-back pairing of Joe Rodon and Ethan Ampadu keeping a clean sheet in their last three outings. 

Away from home, Farke’s side have an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.08, which they have bettered by conceding only 0.84 goals per game. The Whites have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their league matches both home and away, giving them the best record in the competition with a total of eighteen clean sheets. 

Prediction

With a new boss, albeit interim, always comes the possibility of a ‘new manager bounce’, as Watford look to turn around their poor form and get back to winning ways at home. This fixture is expected to be too difficult for Cleverley to pick up his first win as head coach at Vicarage Road, though.

Despite their struggles, Watford tend to find the net at home and come up against a Leeds side whose scoring habits on the road have perked in recent weeks. With plenty on the line at the top of the Championship table, expect more goals this weekend. 

OddsNow's Pick: Both teams to score (10/13 @ vbet)

 

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