Roma vs Bologna: Betting Odds & Prediction

Champions League hopefuls collide as fifth-placed Roma host fourth-placed Bologna at the Stadio Olimpico on Monday evening.

The two sides are separated by four points, with Roma having played a game fewer than Bologna. Italy will have five Champions League teams next season. However, the fight for these spots will be highly contested, with only ten points separating eighth and fourth in Serie A.

Kick-off is set for 5:30pm UK time.

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Roma

With each passing week, Roma’s resurgence under club legend turned manager Daniele De Rossi becomes more astounding. On Thursday, they reached the Europa League semi-final by defeating Italian rivals AC Milan 2-1 on the night and 3-1 across the two legs. The achievement is even more impressive given Roma were down to ten men during the majority of Thursday’s match.

Their European success has correlated with their domestic success, as since De Rossi’s appointment in January, Roma have gained 2.36 points per game in Serie A, leading them from 9th to 5th in the standings. Roma have only lost one of their eleven Serie A games with De Rossi as manager.

Across the entire season, Roma’s home form has been extremely impressive. They have only lost twice at home in the league, gaining 2.25 points per game when hosting. Their attack has been excellent, scoring the second-highest number of home goals in the division. However, only two stadiums have seen more goals this season than the Stadio Olimpico, with 3.13 total goals being scored on average this season.  

Roma have overperformed their expected goals tally significantly this season, scoring a staggering 2.19 goals from an expected goals tally of (xG) 1.31. Their defence has also overperformed at home, although to a much lesser extent, conceding 0.94 goals a game from an expected goals-against tally (xGA) of 1.07.

Bologna

The away side have been the surprise story of Serie A this season. They are currently fourth in the table, only four points off third-placed Juventus. 

Thiago Motta’s side has, however, failed to replicate the same amount of success on their travels compared to at home, gaining only 1.33 points per away match and 2.29 points per game when hosting. They have the most significant home advantage in the league, with statistics stating that the team's overall performance is 31% better at home than on their travels, scoring 21% more goals at home and conceding nearly 40% fewer goals at their home ground. 

Despite this, Bologna's away record has improved of late, and are unbeaten in five away matches heading into Monday’s match. A key theme of Bologna’s away record is failing to convert draws into victories, having the most away draws in the league (8) and drawing 53.33% of the time on the road.

Offensively, Bologna has been unfortunate on their travels, only scoring 1.07 away goals per game despite having an xG of 1.3. However, this balances out with their overperforming defence, which has conceded 1.13 away goals per game from an xGA tally of 1.23.

Prediction

Although Bologna have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league matches, Roma have only failed to score twice under De Rossi and come into this match extremely high in confidence on the back of their European triumph in midweek. Bologna are missing key man Lewis Fergerson through a long-term ACL injury, whilst striker Joshua Zirkzee is without a goal or assist in four matches and is out of form.

OddsNow back a highly-spirited Roma to keep up their incredible form under De Rossi on Monday.