Middlesbrough vs Leeds: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Middlesbrough host Leeds United in the Championship on Monday evening in a pivotal match for the promotion race. The visitors sit just outside the automatic promotion spots, two points behind league leaders Ipswich Town and one point behind Leicester City who have played one less game.
The hosts are in fine form but have left it too late to reach the play-off positions, coming into this match eight points adrift with three games to play. Kick-off is set for 8pm at the Riverside Stadium.
Recent Form
Middlesbrough
The hosts have been formidable recently and remain unbeaten in nine league matches whilst winning three of their last four home matches. Their last match ended in a 1-1 away draw against league leaders Ipswich Town, despite their opposition being strong favourites in the tie.
Middlesbrough have no issues with chance creation at home with an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.58 this season. However, they have struggled to convert their chances and have netted a lower average of 1.14 goals per home game this season, a much lower tally than their average of 1.68 goals per game on the road. A major contributing factor to Middlesbrough missing out on the playoffs is their failure to score in 29% of their home matches.
Michael Carrick’s side have been solid defensively at the Riverside Stadium, conceding an expected goals against (xGA) tally of only 1.16, which they have bettered by conceding an average of only one goal per home match in the league this season. Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their home matches, a far better record than on the road where they have managed to shut-out their opposition in only 14% of their games.
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Leeds United
The visitors were on fire not long ago and battled their way to the top spot of the Championship for a short period. A recent dip in form has however seen them drop out of the automatic promotion spots, with Leeds winning only one of their last five matches and losing two of those. If they fail to gain promotion back to the Premier League, their away record will be a major contributing factor with Leeds taking 1.62 points per game on the road as opposed to 2.41 points per game at home. Their last match ended in a 1-0 home loss to Blackburn Rovers.
Leeds have been prolific all season but have found issues recently, failing to score in their last two matches. Despite this, their attack is still capable of blowing teams away and have created an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.45 in away matches this season, which they have bettered by netting an average of 1.52 goals per game. Daniel Farke’s side have failed to score in 24% of their away matches, a worse statistic than at home where they have failed to score in only 14% of their games.
Farke’s side have the best defensive record in the Championship, keeping a total of nineteen clean sheets in the competition. They have bettered their expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.09 by conceding an average of only 0.95 goals per away game.
Prediction
Despite Middlesbrough’s recent form, they can still be criticised for their failure to convert chances at the Riverside Stadium and in Leeds they face a defence capable of nullifying even the best attackers in the Championship.
It is possible that Leeds’ dip in form may be attributed to their extreme fixture congestion, with many of their matches being moved closer together due to Farke’s side being so frequently televised. They have however now managed to have a rest period of nine days since their loss against Blackburn Rovers. OddsNow expect Leeds to get back on track in their hunt for promotion, with the Whites putting an end to Middlesbrough’s nine-game unbeaten run.