Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Aaron Nijjar

La Liga leaders Real Madrid continue their hunt for a 36th league title as they host fourth-placed Athletic Bilbao on Sunday evening.

The hosts Madrid enter the game on the back of a 4-2 away victory against Osasuna, while Bilbao secured a 2-0 home win over Alaves last time out. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Santiago Bernabeu. 

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Real Madrid

Madrid's home record has been flawless, with Los Blancos yet to suffer a league defeat on home turf (W12, D2). Carlo Ancelotti's side are also unbeaten in their last twelve matches in all competitions.

Madrid have also kept three consecutive clean sheets, with just 20 goals conceded all season in La Liga. That leaves them with an average of 0.69 goals per match, which remains the best of any side in the division. 

The home side have also excelled in attacking columns, averaging 2.21 goals so far which exceeds their expected goal (xG) tally of 2.21. They've also bagged eight goals in their last two league outings.

England midfielder Jude Bellingham, who stands as La Liga top-scorer with 16 goals so far, returns for Madrid after a two-match suspension following his red card versus Valencia at the start of the month.

Athletic Bilbao

Bilbao have already recorded impressive victories over Barcelona and Atletico Madrid so far this term, and will be looking to complete the set with a win in the Spanish capital. They've only suffered four defeats on the road so far while picking up five wins and five draws in their other outings. 

However, Bilbao have under-performed in attacking columns on the road in comparison with their home form; their xG tally sits at 1.28 compared to the 1.71 they've averaged on home turf. They've also failed to score in an alarming 43% of matches on the road, winning only 36%. 

Ernesto Valverde's side have been compact defensively, though. They've conceded just 0.86 goals per away match, and have recorded clean sheets in their last four away outings. 

Prediction 

The home side predictably come in as strong favourites, but little value can be found in backing Madrid on the moneyline. They not only create a wealth of chances at home but also take them, though, and despite Bilbao's recent defensive record on the road, more goals can be expected this weekend. 

Bilbao have also struggled to find the net in away games, a trend we expect to continue given the strength of Madrid's performance in defensive columns throughout this campaign. 

OddsNow's Picks: Over 2.5+ goals scored (3/4 @ BetGoodwin); Real Madrid to win 'to nil' (7/4 @ Sky Bet)

 

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