Premier League Outright Odds: Winner, top four and relegation

We've reached the halfway stage of the Premier League season, with plenty to play for at both ends of the table. 

But who will come out on top in the key outright markets?

Odds Now's Brad Walker (@brad_TWalker) takes a closer look at the current landscape.

Premier League winner market leaders

After four consecutive titles, reigning champions Manchester City look as though they've finally loosened their grasp on the English top-flight after a dismal run at the back-end of 2024. 

The question remains, can Liverpool hold on to become champions, or will a member of the chasing pack pip them to the crown?

Liverpool (3/10)

Few expected Liverpool to have dominated to this extent heading into the second half of the campaign. 

Many anticipated a season of transition in Arne Slot's first term in charge following the departure of club legend Jurgen Klopp, but the Dutchman has hit the ground running at Anfield.

His men currently boast a six point lead at the Premier League summit, having lost just two matches in all competitions so far. 

Liverpool also sit pretty at the top of the Champions League as they look to compete on all fronts, but the ongoing contract discussions around key players isn't a help.

That, alongside potential injuries to the squad's main pillars, look to be the greatest threat at derailing their momentum as of now.

Slot has exceeded all expectations since taking over from Klopp on Merseyside. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Arsenal (5/1)

Mikel Arteta's side rightly heralded praise for the impressive run put together during the second half of last season. 

Arsenal lost just two of their final 19 matches and were bitterly unlucky not to win their first league title in over two decades.

A similar run of form is required if they are to go one better this time around but chances appear slim based on recent performances. 

While the Gunners boast the best defensive record in the division, they look toothless in forward areas, not helped by a long-term hamstring injury to talisman Bukayo Saka. 

Squandered chances in recent matches with Newcastle and Manchester United typifies their season so far and looks to have dumped them out of both cup competitions, further amplifying calls to bring in a forward during the January window in the process.

Manchester City (25/1)

The champions' form has picked up somewhat in recent weeks following three consecutive victories in all competitions.

However, their dismal run at the end of last year has left them with a mountain to climb in terms of retaining a record fifth consecutive Premier League title.

City currently trail leaders Liverpool by 12 points having played a game more and are still far from stable at the back.

Both Leicester and West Ham were handed ample goalscoring opportunities in their eventual defeats to Pep Guardiola's men, so it isn't a surprise to see moves being made in the winter window.

Regardless of who comes through the door, City have surely left themselves with far too much work to do in the title race.

In fact, if they were to somehow close the gap and come out on top, it would perhaps be Guardiola's greatest achievement to date.

Nottingham Forest

For Nottingham Forest to be in a Premier League title race discussion at this stage of the season is remarkable in itself. 

Many tipped Nuno Espirito Santo's men to be in a battle at the opposite end of the table coming into the campaign, but the East Midlanders have been one of the most refreshing sides in the division.

Talk of a shot at the title is of course a stretch and then some, but the fact they're even mentioned speaks to the quality of the job Santo has done since walking through the door at the City Ground.

Odds Now's pick

Backing Liverpool to win the title is hardly groundbreaking analysis at this stage given the extent of their lead, but it's hard to see which of the chasing pack are capable of putting together a decent enough run to challenge them. 

Arsenal seem the most likely if they are somehow able to rectify their issues in front of goal, but with signing a striker in January looking unlikely and the exact length of Saka's injury unknown, it's hard to make a case for them. 

Top four finish market leaders

The top two Liverpool and Arsenal predictably come in at narrow odds to secure a place in the top four, but which two sides will join them in next season's Champions League?

Chelsea (1/2)

Enzo Maresca has rightly received praise for his work so far at Stamford Bridge. 

In fact, Chelsea looked as though they could be a major player in the title race heading into Christmas, but recent results have since brought them back down to earth.

The Blues have failed to win any of their last four matches in the league - a run which has featured disappointing losses to both Fulham and Ipswich.

Nevertheless, Maresca's crop still sit at an odds-on 1/2 to secure a spot in the top four - an achievement the Chelsea faithful will have been more than satisfied with at the start of the season.

Manchester City (4/7)

To say the champions' season hasn't gone to plan so far would be a severe understatement, but failure to finish in the top four would still be a huge shock at this stage.

Consecutive wins over Leicester and West Ham have somewhat calmed nerves at the Etihad, but uncertainty remains at the back.

Still, the current squad still boasts a dearth of quality and, along with any reinforcements brought in during the winter window, should be enough to get them over the line in the top four race.

Newcastle (7/4)

The Magpies showed signs of a return to the form which saw them qualify for Europe's premier club competition back in 2022/23, but a lack of inconsistency looked to condemn them to another midtable spot. 

However, Eddie Howe's men finally look to have hit stride after picking up consecutive league wins, including notable victories over the likes of Aston Villa, Manchester United and Tottenham.

Providing Newcastle are able to keep talismanic striker Alexander Isak fit, they look to have as good a chance as anyone at securing a spot in the Champions League next term.

The absence of European football is also a major plus, allowing Howe to keep his squad fresh ahead of a potentially tough run-in down the stretch.

Isak's fitness will be a defining factor in Newcastle's eventual finish. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Nottingham Forest (3/1)

Despite their incredible efforts during the first half of the campaign, Forest still remain distant outsiders in the top four race. 

There is a lingering expectancy that Santo's men will drop-off, despite them showing few signs of doing so.

Forest are solid at both ends of the pitch and also a rare commodity in proven goalscorer Chris Wood.

Ultimately, Champions League football may be a step too far, but the City Ground faithful certainly have plenty of reasons to dream given their displays so far.

Aston Villa (14/1)

Unai Emery's men have suffered a slight drop-off in their form compared to last season. 

Balancing European and domestic commitments has proven difficult as many predicted, with Villa picking up just one win directly following a Champions League fixture so far.

Their away form has also been a concern - only six sides have fared worse on their travels than the Midlanders - yet they remain only four points adrift of fourth midway through January.

The amount of goals conceded is a major problem and makes backing them difficult, but they certainly boast enough attacking quality to put a run together and challenge.

Odds Now's pick

As detailed, City's form has made for a remarkable watch but taking them on in the top four race still seems a bit of a reach. 

They still boast one of Europe's best strikers in Erling Haaland, who has refound his scoring boots in recent weeks, and a litter of talent which moonwalks into most sides in the Premier League.

I'm also backing Newcastle to occupy the fourth and final spot given they're available at a best price just shy of 2/1, which seems a tad wide. 

Howe's crop look to be building momentum and also have the advantage of no European football to distract them down the stretch, unlike the likes of City, Villa and Chelsea. 

Getting them at 7/4 with Sky Bet holds plenty of juice to justify a punt on the Geordies making a Champions League return next season.

Relegation market leaders

All three promoted sides were condemned to a Championship return last year, but will history repeat itself this time around?

Southampton (1/50)

In Southampton's case, the answer is short: yes. 

The Saints look destined for a drop back down to the second tier after a miserable season back in the top-flight. 

No side has had fewer points than their six at this stage of a season, leaving them on course to be the worst side the Premier League has ever seen.

With just one win to their name after 20 matches played, Ivan Juric's men would require a remarkable run of form to leave them with even a slither of a chance at surviving.

Leicester (3/10)

The future isn't looking too bright for the Foxes, either. 

Leicester currently sit 18th on 14 points, only below on 17th-placed Wolves on goal difference, but Ruud van Nistelrooy's side look to be spiralling.

They've lost their last five league matches on the bounce, failing to score in three of those while conceding 14 in the process.

The run has typified their season, which has seen them average a measly 1.15 goals scored and keep just a single clean sheet.

Leicester haven't convinced since Van Nistelrooy was appointed at the end of November (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Ipswich (5/6)

Ipswich have certainly been the most convincing of the three who came up, but questions remain over whether they'll have enough to avoid an immediate Championship return.

Young forward Liam Delap has provided a bright spark up top, with the 21-year-old registering an impressive eight league goals so far.

Whether his goals will be enough to fire them to safety is another matter entirely, but their survival odds have shortened slightly after losing just two of their last five.

Impressive performances against Chelsea and Fulham have given plenty of reason for optimism at Portman Road.

Wolves (7/4)

The Midlanders endured a torrid first half of the campaign which culminated in the sacking of former manager Gary O'Neil. 

Wolves' form has picked up under new boss Vitor Pereira, who avoided defeat in his first three matches in charge. 

The run has left them outside of the dreaded drop zone on goal difference, but a tough run of fixtures coming up could threaten to plunge them back into the depths of despair and halt any momentum they've built up under the Portuguese coach.

Everton (3/1)

The sacking of former manager Sean Dyche raised eyebrows last week, particularly given the Englishman's track record at keeping teams in the division.

Nevertheless, his departure paved the way for a return to Goodison Park for David Moyes, who previously enjoyed 11 years in charge at the club before leaving in 2013.

The Scot's familiarity with the Premier League, combined with the added quality Everton boast on the three currently occupying the relegation spots, should see them get over the line.

Bringing in a forward during the January window would certainly boost their chances significantly given the Toffees' abysmal record in front of goal. 

They've averaged a woeful 0.79 scored in league outings so far.

Odds Now's pick

An immediate relegation for Southampton and Leicester seems almost inevitable at this stage and so attention turns to which side will occupy the third and final spot. 

Everton's poor form in front of goal is a huge concern, but their squad does boast quality which the teams below them clearly lack.

Survival would be a huge achievement for Kieran McKenna and Ipswich, while Wolves have been given some reason for optimism after Pereira's start in the Molineux dugout. 

However, getting the Midlanders at a wide 7/4 to go down looks too big a price to turn down in my eyes. 

For all of the positivity seen since Pereira's appointment, Wolves face a daunting run of fixtures over the next month which threatens to completely derail any progress made recently.

Another barren run could see the Molineux faithful lose patience once again at a crucial point from which there could be no turning back from.

The lack of discipline shown by players in the aftermath of games is also a concern and indicative of a squad whose wheels could come flying off under the slightest bit of pressure.

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