Northern Ireland vs Scotland: Betting Odds & Prediction

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Written by: Findlay Brown

Scotland welcome Northern Ireland to Hampden Park having not won in six ahead of the summer's European Championships.

The away side come into the game after a difficult EURO 2024 qualifying campaign which saw them finish fifth in Group H. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm tomorrow evening.

Recent Form

Scotland

Scotland’s form has been troubling of late. Despite securing automatic qualification for EURO 2024, they have now failed to win in their last six matches. Two of those four came at home - a 3-1 loss to England in September followed by a 3-3 draw with Norway in November. 

The run of form follows a successful qualifying campaign where they finished second in Group A. Their home form was a cornerstone of their progress with Scotland winning three of their four matches on home turf (the other being the draw with Norway). Scotland exceeded their expected goal (xG) tally of 1.24,  scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game. They also averaged 8.75 shots per game, with an impressive 29% shots converted. 

Scotland also impressed in defensive quarters; their average expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.11 led to only 0.75 goals conceded per game. This seems to have dissipated in recent matches, though. Scotland have conceded 18 goals in their last six matches, at an average of three goals per game. They've also conceded at least two goals in all of those games. 

Northern Ireland

The form of the away side hardly makes for great reading, either. Northern Ireland managed just nine points from their ten EURO 2024 qualifying matches, leading to a fifth-placed finish in Group H. Only San Marino, who are ranked 211th in the world, were placed below them. 

Michael O'Neill's side scored only four goals in their ten matches, failing to score in 60%. Their defensive performance was one shining light; their average of 1.3 goals conceded is not far off the 1.03 averaged by the four teams above them.  

They will also be pleased with an improved showing in a 1-1 draw in Romania on Friday night as they look to build momentum moving forward. 

Prediction

Scotland rightly remain favourites despite their decline in form, but little value can be found in backing the home side on the moneyline. Scotland's matches have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks, even though it has often been to their detriment, and OddsNow back plenty of goal action again in this one. 

OddsNow's Pick: Over 2.5 goals scored (13/10 @ William Hill)

 

 

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