New York City vs DC United: Betting Odds & Prediction
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New York City welcome East Coast rivals DC United in the MLS. Kick-off at Citi Field is 12.30am (Sunday, UK time).
DC United are bidding for their second-ever MLS victory away to NYCFC, after nine previous contests in New York. Last season’s meetings saw a 3-2 win for the hosts at Yankee Stadium avenged by a 2-0 triumph for DC United in the reverse fixture.
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New York City
After kicking off with a trio of defeats, a three-match unbeaten run sees New York City occupying 12th place in the Eastern Conference. They have won two, drawn two and lost four of their opening eight games. Last time out, they secured a hard-fought 2-0 home victory over lowly New England Revolution, thanks to well-taken second-half strikes from Agustin Ojeda and substitute Julián Fernández.
NYCFC’s wasteful finishing has contributed to their modest 1 point per match; only Revolution and FC Dallas have converted less than their 0.88 goals per game, which is also well below their expected goals (xG) tally of 1.39. At the other end, they have conceded 1.13 goals per game (while averaging an expected goals against of 1.44).
Having collected just one point from four away games, the Boys in Blue’s only other win was last month’s 2-1 defeat of Toronto at Yankee Stadium. Nick Cushing’s side, who like their visitors failed to make the playoffs last season, average 1.75 points in home fixtures. The hosts, who were beaten just three times at home in 2023/4, have netted 1.5 goals per home game, from an xG of 1.77, with an average of one against (xGA 1.29). They are also yet to be shut out in front of their own fans.
NYCFC’s 2 goals scored by both teams per match is the second lowest in MLS, although their home games have generally seen more goal action. None of their eight fixtures have exceeded three goals scored by both teams, while 67%—including the last four—have produced two goals or less.
DC United
Two late sucker punches from strugglers Orlando City saw DC United slip to their campaign’s second defeat in Washington last weekend. The loss was made more damaging by key men Mateusz Klich and Aaron Herrera receiving fifth yellow cards, which will see them miss the trip to Queens.
Christian Benteke, MLS’ joint leading scorer with six goals, nodded DC into an early lead and Gabriel Pirani restored their advantage after they were pegged back. However, slack home defending saw The Lions take the points 3-2 in a dramatic finish. It was a familiar story for Troy Lesesne’s side, who have led each of their last five matches yet collected just five points from them.
The Black-and-Red lie two points and two places above their hosts, with their two victories and four draws earning them 1.25 points per game. They average 1.5 goals scored and conceded, from expected goals scored (xG) of 1.66, and an xGA of 1.35.
Curiously, the four-time MLS Cup winners have drawn all four outings away from Audi Field, converting 1.25 goals per game, from an xG of 1.38, and (obviously) also shipping 1.25 goals per game (xGA 1.44). In the East, only the New York Red Bulls have a tighter defence on the road. Last season, they picked up four wins on their travels, alongside nine losses.
Although four or more goals have been scored in 62.5% of DC United’s matches overall, their away trips have produced fewer goals: two of the four (50%) have yielded two goals or less.
Prediction
Whichever stadium they play in, New York City FC are strong at home, and they start as favourites to inflict depleted DC United’s first away reverse of the season. All eight of NYCFC’s matches have been tight encounters, and so we forecast two goals or less.