Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Mid-table Los Angeles FC entertain the high-flying New York Red Bulls in the MLS this weekend.
Kick-off at BMO Stadium is 3.30am (Sunday) UK time.
Recent Form
LA FC
Los Angeles FC picked up their first point on the road last time out—at the fourth time of asking—with a 2-2 tie at Portland Timbers. A Mateusz Bogusz double saw them twice come from behind in Oregon, although they played nearly the whole second half with an extra player following the dismissal of Timbers goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau. Two-goal Colombian midfielder Eduard Atuesta will serve a suspension following an accumulation of yellow cards.
Despite struggling away from BMO Stadium, the Black and Gold’s early home form has been excellent; three wins and a draw have combined for an MLS joint-best 2.5 points per match. Their standout victory was a 5-0 dismantling of Nashville, which they followed up with an impressive 2-1 win over table-topping LA Galaxy two weeks ago.
Last year’s Western Conference finals champions currently lie sixth in the standings, just four points behind their city neighbours. Their record for all regular season matches so far stands at 1.38 points per game, 1.63 goals scored—from a league-high expected goals (xG) of 2.02—and 1.5 goals against (xGA 1.36).
LAFC’s 2.25 goals netted per game in front of their own fans (from an xG of 2.27), is only bettered by three clubs, and Steve Cherundolo’s side have also conceded just 0.5 goals per home fixture (albeit from an xGA of 1.37). Only this weekend’s opponents, the Red Bulls, boast a superior goals-against record at home.
New York Red Bulls
The New York Red Bulls are level with Eastern Conference leaders Inter Miami on 15 points, and they also have a game in hand over Lionel Messi and co. Going down to defeat just once in their opening eight games, their 1.88 points per match is only matched across MLS by Galaxy. Their sole loss was in their visit to last year’s MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew 3-0.
The Red Bulls, who finished eighth in last season’s Eastern Conference, were held to a goalless home draw last time out by Chicago Fire, but they were hampered by the loss of defender Andrés Reyes to a red card for an elbow offence before half-time. He now serves a suspension.
New York enjoy the joint-best defensive record in MLS, with 0.88 conceded per match (xGA 1.27), while they have netted an average of 1.38 goals (xG 1.4). This will be their sixth outing away from the Red Bull Arena; a pair of 2-1 wins at FC Cincinatti and Houston Dynamo and two draws combine for a points per away fixture of 1.6.
Sandro Schwarz’s side only average a modest 1 goal scored from their league trips, from an xG of 1.22, but they have conceded a Conference-best 1.2 goals per road match (xGA 1.38). Their 2.25 goals scored by both sides per game (2.2 in away matches) is the fifth lowest in MLS.
Prediction
Taking account of their powerful start in their own stadium, LAFC are favoured to end the Red Bulls’ four-game unbeaten run. All three of these teams’ previous meetings have also been won by the team playing at home.
At BMO Stadium, LAFC create plenty of chances and are yet to concede more than one goal. The Red Bulls are a solid defensive unit, though, as well as less than prolific scorers on the road, and so we expect this one to be a tight contest.