Lille vs Aston Villa: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Ligue 1 Lille host Premier League Aston Villa in the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-final second leg on Thursday. Kick-off at Stade Pierre-Mauroy is at 5.45pm UK time.
Villa make the short hop across the Channel holding a slender advantage after Bafode Diakite’s late headed reply at Villa Park left the tie finely poised. The English side had forged 2-0 in front in last week’s first leg through Ollie Watkins and John McGinn strikes.
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Lille
Like their visitors, Lille are fourth in their domestic division as they chase a return to European club football’s top table. Unlike Villa, they have been given the luxury of a full week to recover and prepare for the decisive second leg.
Paulo Fonseca’s side boast a formidable home record, with ten league victories and just one defeat producing an average points per match of 2.36—comfortably the best in Ligue 1. Lille’s 2-1 loss to Reims in September is the only time they have been beaten in front of their own fans since August 2022—a span of 34 matches. They have achieved the minimum two-goal victory they require to progress in normal time in 10 of their 20 (50%) home league and cup matches.
Les Dogues average 2 league goals per game in their own stadium from an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.69. With only 0.57 goals conceded per home league game (xGA 1.01), they possess the French top flight’s meanest rearguard, although they are without a home clean sheet in two months. Three or more goals have been scored by both sides in 11 (55%) of their home matches in all competitions, including seven of the last eight.
Last week’s defeat was Lille’s first in this season’s Europa Conference League, following six wins and four draws. They have won four of their five European home matches; last month’s fixture against Austria’s Sturm Graz ended 1-1, but the Ligue 1 side were already firmly in control of the tie. That was also the only time in 2024 they have failed to score 2+ goals at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. They have converted 10 goals and shipped three across their five European home games, although this represents a significant step-up in class from previous cup visitors.
As reigning French champions, Lille topped a 2021/22 Champions League group including Salzburg, Wolfsburg and Unai Emery’s former club Sevilla, before exiting in the last 16 to holders Chelsea.
🏟️ Stade Pierre Mauroy 📌
— UEFA Europa Conference League (@europacnfleague) April 15, 2024
What'll happen in this fixture?#UECL pic.twitter.com/9aBx3TqkFI
Aston Villa
Although their home form has been stellar for long periods of the past 12 months, Aston Villa also boast the Premier League’s fourth-best away record, having collected 28 points on the road at an average of 1.65 points per league game. In their last match they produced a complete away performance, with late goals from Leon Bailey and top scorer Watkins sealing a richly deserved 2-0 victory at title-chasing Arsenal.
A 4-1 defeat at European champions Manchester City earlier this month is Aston Villa’s only away reverse of 2024 from 10 outings. They have netted 1.65 goals per away league match from an xG of 1.45, while their defence has conceded an average 1.59 goals per road game (xGA 1.52). At least three goals have been scored by both sides in 58.3% of the Villans’ 24 away games across all competitions.
The Claret and Blues, who boast a 100% record from their six European home ties, have won two of five (40%) on the road, with their only loss a 3-2 defeat at Legia Warsaw. Emery’s side have scored 12 goals and conceded five over that period, in addition to grinding out a goalless draw with Dutch giants Ajax in the previous round.
The 1982 European Cup winners have drawn two and lost one of their three previous visits to French sides.
Ollie Watkins this season 😤#UECL pic.twitter.com/f9jy725OcU
— UEFA Europa Conference League (@europacnfleague) April 14, 2024
Prediction
The tie is on a knife-edge, with Lille 6/4 (Paddy Power/Betfair/Ibet) to win the second leg. Despite being underdogs on the night, the visitors are 4/11 favourites (various outlets) to progress to the semi-finals (either in 90 minutes or after possible extra-time and penalty kicks).
Lille have been in red-hot form at home: take them to get the win on the night that they need to wipe out the Villa lead. With the French side chasing the tie, we also forecast plentty of goalscoring action.