Leicester City vs Birmingham City: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Aled Edwards

Leicester City host Birmingham City this Saturday in a match with major implications for both ends of the Sky Bet Championship.

The home side have already beaten Birmingham 3-0 in a dominant FA Cup display at the King Power earlier this year. The hosts find themselves just outside of the automatic promotion spots but with a game in hand on both of their title rivals above them in Ipswich Town and Leeds United. 

The visitors sit just two points above safety and are looking to avoid relegation and remain in the Championship for next season. Kick-off is set for 3pm at the King Power Stadium. 

Recent Form

Leicester City

The hosts had dropped drastically in form in recent weeks, taking only four points in six games and losing their lead at the top of the Championship before proceeding to drop out of the automatic promotion spots. Last time out however, Leicester got back to winning ways by defeating an in-form Norwich side in a dominant 3-1 win at home.  

Leicester have been formidable at home this season despite a recent tough period, averaging 2.26 points at the King Power Stadium in the league this season with a win percentage of 74%. 

Enzo Maresca’s side have been prolific in the Championship this season, creating an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.95 in their matches at home which they have exceeded by netting an average of 2 goals per game. They have scored in 89% of their home matches and average 13 shots on goal per match with an impressively high conversion rate of 15%. 

Leicester have also been impressive defensively, with their expected goals against (xGA) tally sitting at 0.98 in home matches which they have bettered by conceding only 0.74 goals per game at the King Power. Maresca’s side have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their home matches this season. 

Birmingham City

The visitors won 1-0 last time out at home against Preston North End, putting a seven-game winless streak to an end. Interim boss Gary Rowett appears to have solidified the Blues’ defensive line, achieving a clean sheet for the first time in nine matches against Preston, but its yet to be seen whether his side will be as effective on the road as they continue to struggle away from home, taking only one point in their last six matches. 

On the road, Birmingham have only won 15% of their games this season, losing a worrying 70% of their matches away from home. The Blues have struggled to convert their chances, scoring an average of only 0.85 per game from an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.29 away from home. They have failed to score in 35% of their games in the Championship this season but have netted three in the two matches since Rowett took charge. 

Birmingham have an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.62 in away games which they have failed to match by conceding an average of 1.85 goals per game on the road. They have conceded in 90% of their away matches, which are usually high scoring games involving an average of 2.7 goals per game between Birmingham and their opponents. 

Prediction

Despite the hosts looking out of shape recently and dropping out of the automatic promotion spots, we expect them to win on Saturday as they enter the tie as clear favourites with the bookmakers. Unfortunately, with the odds so stacked in Leicester’s favour, there is little value to be found in backing them on the moneyline. 

Leicester are prolific at home, and with Birmingham tending to keep a clean sheet away from home but improving their form in front of goal under Rowett so far, OddsNow expect a high scoring match between the two sides as they both seek a crucial three points. 

OddsNow's Pick: Over 3.5+ goals scored (7/5 @ BetMGM)

 

 

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